Ex Post and Ex Ante Analysis of Feasibility for PV Solar Projects in Uzbekistan: Financial Modeling Aspects

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Abstract
Uzbekistan has rapidly expanded solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity as part of its transition toward a low-carbon energy system, supported by guaranteed purchase tariffs and an evolving regulatory framework. This paper evaluates the economic feasibility of solar PV investments in Uzbekistan through a combined ex post and ex ante analysis, focusing on both commercial-scale rooftop installations and a proposed large utility-scale floating photovoltaic (FPV) project. Ex post performance data from four commercial rooftop PV systems in Tashkent (20–304 kW) over the period 2024–2025 are analyzed using lifecycle investment appraisal metrics, including the Equivalent Uniform Annual Cost (EUAC)/LCOE framework, Net Present Value (NPV), and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), to benchmark real operating outcomes against modeled expectations. These results are subsequently used to calibrate ex ante simulations for a 491 MW FPV installation planned on the Sardoba reservoir, assessed using RETScreen Expert and a bespoke three-statement financial model incorporating detailed tax, financing, and operational assumptions. The findings indicate that commercial-scale rooftop PV projects in Tashkent operate close to the financial break-even point, with EUAC-based levelized costs of energy broadly aligned with current guaranteed purchase prices for PV electricity, resulting in near-zero NPVs. In contrast, the large-scale Sardoba FPV project demonstrates moderate but positive financial viability, with nominal IRRs of approximately 14–16% and payback periods under ten years at the prevailing tariff levels. Importantly, the monetized value of environmental externalities—primarily avoided CO2 emissions—amounts to roughly from one quarter to a third of initial capital expenditure, materially enhancing the project’s overall economic value. The results suggest that while large-scale solar projects in Uzbekistan generate limited private financial rents, their societal benefits justify continued policy support, stopping short of additional direct subsidy disbursements but conducive to lower cost-of-capital measures.

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