Benefits by Luck: A Study of Lotteries as a Selection Method for Government Programs

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Abstract
Lotteries could be a just and cost-effective procedure to distribute government benefits in contexts of oversubscription, with the added benefit of allowing assessments of the impact of government programs. However, little is known about whether there is public support for employing lotteries in this context. We examine support for a lottery that selects recipients of new government-built housing units in Brazil and find that neither lotteries participants nor the general public supports their use. We arrive at this result by employing a three-pronged multi-method approach. Quasi-experimental analysis of an original survey of lottery participants reveals that support not only is tepid, but substantially higher among winners than non-winners. In-depth interviews suggest that applicants believe lotteries miss the most deserving beneficiaries. A general population survey experiment reveals that lotteries are not perceived as just or efficient when compared to alternative beneficiary selection methods. While sometimes normatively desirable, the use of lotteries for government programs enjoys limited popular support.
Funding Information
  • Whitney and Betty MacMillan Center for International and Area Studies
  • Fundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (224544)
  • Getulio Vargas Foundation (RPA2016 and RPA2019)
  • Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (#402768/2016-7)
  • Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (#444488/2015-4)
  • Yale Human Subject Committee (#2000020455)
  • Emory’s Human Subjects Committee (#IRB00101802 and #IRB00004488)
  • FGV Ethics Committee (#04/2017 and #161/2022)

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