Satellite‐Constrained Reanalysis Reveals CO 2 Versus Climate Process Compensation Across the Global Land Carbon Sink

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Abstract
Terrestrial ecosystems annually absorb % of anthropogenic C emissions. The degrees to which contemporary and climate trends drive this absorption are uncertain, as are the governing mechanisms. To reduce uncertainty, we use Bayesian model‐data integration (CARbon DAta MOdel fraMework) to retrieve a terrestrial biosphere reanalysis where Earth Observations optimally inform mechanistic model processes: observations include satellite‐ and inventory‐based constraints on distributions and change in terrestrial C (including live biomass, dead organic C, and land‐atmosphere exchanges) and underlying mechanisms (including photosynthesis, deforestation, water storage anomalies, and fire). We find that the impact of 2001–2021's atmospheric increase on terrestrial C (+39.4 PgC) opposes and far outweighs the impact of climate trends over this period (10.5 PgC). Globally, C gains are mostly attributable to live biomass growth (+31.2 PgC), while ‐induced dead organic C gains (+7.8 PgC) are compensated by climate‐induced losses (8.8 PgC). The distribution of compensating dead C changes induces an aggregate shift in dead C from high‐ and mid‐latitudes (3.5 PgC) to tropical ecosystems (+2.6 PgC). We additionally find global residence time reductions attributable to (2.6%) and climate (1.3%) reflected across latitudes, irrespective of reservoir C changes. In aggregate, these changes reveal an acceleration and redistribution of terrestrial C stores in response to and climate trends, which together reflect a gradual but fundamental reorganization of the terrestrial C cycle. Tracking this reorganization—through robust and continual diagnosis of ecosystem function—is essential for accurately resolving the compensating dynamics governing the strength and resilience of the terrestrial C sink.
Funding Information
  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNH20ZDA001N‐CARBON, NNH22ZDA001N‐CMS, NNH20ZDA001N‐CMS, 80NSSC21K1593, 80NSSC24K1562, 80NM0018D0004)
  • National Science Foundation (1942133)
  • Alfred P. Sloan Foundation

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