Mitigation benchmarks from the 2025 community update of global emissions pathways

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Abstract
Long-term global emissions scenarios underpin climate policy by providing quantitative benchmarks for near-term actions consistent with long-term temperature goals. However, scenario benchmarks can quickly become outdated as real-world emissions, policies, technologies and even geopolitics evolve. Here we present an updated and curated ensemble of global integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios developed since the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. We use a continuous “live” collection and vetting framework designed for regular updating - with planned annual releases - to derive up-to-date policy-relevant benchmarks. Of more than 1,500 collected scenarios, only a minority remains consistent with recent trends between 2015 and 2025. After assessing feasibility, plausibility, and sustainability, 162 scenarios form the basis for updated benchmarks. These indicate that pathways limiting peak warming to around 1.7 °C above pre-industrial levels represent the lowest warming outcomes currently supported in the recent literature, requiring global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions of around 60% by 2035 and 90% by 2050 relative to 2019, with net-zero CO₂ emissions reached around 2050. All Paris-consistent benchmarks require a rapid transitioning away from unabated fossil fuels, an unprecedented scale-up of renewable energy, and limited but necessary deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). While limiting peak warming to 1.5 °C with low or no overshoot is no longer feasible, returning warming to 1.5 °C this century (after overshooting to about 1.7 °C) remains possible.