Challenges for Sustainable Urban Planning: A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Complex Landslide Risk in a Latin American Megacity

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Abstract
This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of a complex landslide risk scenario in a Latin American megacity, underscoring the key challenges it poses for sustainable urban planning in such cities. This research draws upon multiple studies commissioned by the mayor’s office of the megacity of Bogota, Colombia, and utilizes aerial photographs and satellite imagery from diverse sensor types. The methodology used considered six spatiotemporal analysis scenarios: rural/natural, mining, urban, landslide risk, stabilization and environmental park, and informal reoccupation. The findings reveal a complex interplay between the megacity’s peripheral areas, which face constraints for human settlement, and their potential for construction material exploitation. This complex relationship was further compounded by weaknesses in planning and controlling peripheral occupations, coupled with a burgeoning demand for developable land in a landslide risk context (landslide area: 73 ha). The analysis scenarios highlighted the predominant use of a reactive urban planning approach that addressed events, changes, or problems after they had occurred, rather than proactively anticipating and preventing potential risks at the study site. The detected land-use transformations unveiled different historical moments, culminating in a landslide disaster (804 houses destroyed, 3000 families at risk). This catastrophe necessitated a radical and significant intervention, incurring substantial costs for the megacity administration (USD 26.05 million). This landslide was the largest recorded in the megacity and one of the most extensive in urban areas across Latin America.

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