A Multi-State Epidemic Model with Cellular Automata for Liquidity Risk Contagion in High-Carbon Manufacturing

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Abstract
From the executive risk preference–policy uncertainty interaction perspective, this paper constructs a CA-SHIRD model by leveraging complex network theory and cellular automata, and further analyzes the liquidity risk contagion mechanism and dynamic evolutionary characteristics in the high-carbon manufacturing industry. In summary, this paper yields several key findings: (1) An increase in infection probability intensifies liquidity risk contagion, while a higher transition probability mainly accelerates short-term risk exposure. A higher recovery probability mitigates the contagion process and increases the proportion of recovered enterprises, whereas a higher default probability also weakens contagion but leads to a larger proportion of defaulted enterprises. (2) The liquidity risk contagion threshold in the high-carbon manufacturing industry is positively correlated with policy sensitivity, policy target ambiguity, and policy change frequency; negatively correlated with green preference, long-term orientation, and policy coordination; and exhibits a U-shaped relationship with risk perception and an inverted U-shaped relationship with policy instrument predictability. (3) When policy sensitivity interacts with policy change frequency, it exerts a risk resonance effect; when policy target ambiguity interacts with green preference and long-term orientation, a risk hedging effect is generated; when policy change frequency interacts with green preference and long-term orientation, the risk amplification effect of policy change frequency dominates the risk mitigation effect of green preference and long-term orientation.
Funding Information
  • Later-stage Funding Project of the National Social Science Fund (24FGLB100)
  • Youth Project of the National Social Science Foundation (25CJY108)
  • Major Strategic and Policy-Oriented Bidding Projects in Jiangsu Province’s Educational Science Planning (JS/2024/ZD0104-01849)
  • Youth Project of Jiangsu Provincial Social Science Foundation (25GLC003)

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