Avalanche risk mapping by simulation

Authors:
  • CKChristopher J. Keylock
    Christopher J. Keylock
  • DMDavid M. McClung
    David M. McClung
  • MMMagnús Már Magnússon
    Magnús Már Magnússon
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Abstract
In this paper we present a simulation approach to mapping avalanche risk with application to settlements in Iceland. Two simulation models are developed to calculate the probability of avalanches travelling a certain distance, and of the flow being a specific width. These two simulation models, in combination with knowledge of the average frequency of avalanche occurrence, the variability in avalanche direction and the degree of loss caused by an avalanche, permit risk values to be determined for the areas of concern.