The Biofuels Blueprint: Understanding the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard

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Abstract
We provide a comprehensive review of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), synthesizing nearly two decades of program evolution, market outcomes, and economic analysis. The RFS mandates minimum volumes of renewable fuel blending through a nested structure based on life‐cycle greenhouse gas reductions, enforced via tradeable Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs). Actual implementation diverged substantially from statutory targets, reaching only 20 billion gallons in 2022 versus the intended 36 billion, primarily due to failure to scale cellulosic biofuel production. RIN prices exhibit extraordinary volatility but follow rational economic fundamentals. Total inflation‐adjusted compliance costs are estimated to be $252.1 billion over 2011 through 2025.

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