Long-Term (2015–2024) Daily PM2.5 Estimation in China by Using XGBoost Combining Empirical Orthogonal Function Decomposition

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Abstract
Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has garnered significant scientific and public health concern owing to its capacity for deep penetration into the human respiratory system, presenting significant health risks. Despite the implementation of strict environmental policies in China over the past decade to reduce PM2.5 levels, long-term public health concerns remain a serious issue. Our study aims to provide a high-quality, seamless daily PM2.5 dataset for China covering the years 2015 to 2024. A two-step PM2.5 estimation model is established based on a machine learning algorithm and a spatio-temporal decomposition method. First, we utilize the machine learning algorithm XGBoost (EXtreme Gradient Boosting) to address gaps in the daily MAIAC (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction) AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth), with R2/RMSE (coefficient of determination/Root Mean Square Error) of 0.67/0.2678 compared to AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) AOD. Then, a novel approach by integrating XGBoost with EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) decomposition is introduced for PM2.5 estimation. The integration of EOF allows for the incorporation of entire meteorological field information into the PM2.5 estimation model, significantly enhancing its accuracy: spatial CV (cross-validation)-R2 improved from 0.8340 to 0.8935, and spatial CV-RMSE reduced from 13.8177 to 11.0668. Leveraging the newly produced dataset, we analyze the spatio-temporal variations of PM2.5 across China with EOF decomposition, particularly noting that PM2.5 levels in the eastern anthropogenic intensive regions continuously declined from 2015 to 2020, and fluctuated steadily during 2020–2024. This research underscores the critical need for sustained and effective air quality management strategies in China.
Funding Information
  • National Natural Science Foundation of China (42375131, 2025NGCM02, HRCES-202408, 2042024kf1046)
  • Key Laboratory of National Geographic Census and Monitoring, Ministry of Natural Resources (42375131, 2025NGCM02, HRCES-202408, 2042024kf1046)
  • Youth Project from the Hubei Research Center for Basic Disciplines of Earth Sciences (42375131, 2025NGCM02, HRCES-202408, 2042024kf1046)
  • Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (42375131, 2025NGCM02, HRCES-202408, 2042024kf1046)

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