Generalized model‐based solutions to false‐positive error in species detection/nondetection data

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Abstract
Detection/nondetection data are widely collected by ecologists interested in estimating species distributions, abundances, and phenology, and are often imperfect. Recent model development has focused on accounting for both false‐positive and false‐negative errors given evidence that misclassification is common across many sampling protocols. To date, however, model‐based solutions to false‐positive error have largely addressed occupancy estimation. We describe a generalized model structure that allows investigators to account for false‐positive error in detection/nondetection data across a broad range of ecological parameters and model classes, and demonstrate that previously developed model‐based solutions are special cases of the generalized model. Simulation results demonstrate that estimators for abundance and migratory arrival time ignoring false‐positive error exhibit severe (20–70%) relative bias even when only 5–10% of detections are false positives. Bias increased when false‐positive detections were more likely to occur at sites or within occasions in which true positive detections were unlikely to occur. Models accounting for false‐positive error following the site‐confirmation or observation‐confirmation designs generally reduced bias substantially, even when few detections were confirmed as true or false positives or when the process model for false‐positive error was misspecified. Results from an empirical example focusing on gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) abundance in Wisconsin, USA reinforce concerns that biases induced by false‐positive error can also distort spatial predictions often used to guide decision making. Model sensitivity to false‐positive error extends well beyond occupancy estimation, but encouragingly, model‐based solutions developed for occupancy estimators are generalizable and effective across a range of models widely used in ecological research.
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Funding Information
  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX14AC36G, NNX16AO61H)

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