Mathematical Modeling of the Phytoplankton Populations Geographic Dynamics for Possible Scenarios of Changes in the Azov Sea Hydrological Regime

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Abstract
Increased influence of abiotic and anthropogenic factors on the ecological state of coastal systems leads to uncontrollable changes in the overall ecosystem. This paper considers the crucial problem of studying the effect of an increase in the water’s salinity in the Azov Sea and the Taganrog Bay on hydrobiological processes. The main aim of the research is the diagnostic and predictive modeling of the geographic dynamics of the general phytoplankton populations. A mathematical model that describes the dynamics of three types of phytoplankton is proposed, considering the influence of salinity and nutrients on algae development. Discretization is carried out based on a linear combination of Upwind Leapfrog difference schemes and a central difference scheme, which makes it possible to increase the accuracy of solving the biological kinetics problem at large values of the grid Péclet number (Peh > 2). A software package has been developed that implements interrelated models of hydrodynamics and biogeochemical cycles. A modified alternating-triangular method was used to solve large-dimensional systems of linear algebraic equations (SLAE). Based on the scenario approach, several numerical experiments were carried out to simulate the dynamics of the main species of phytoplankton populations at different levels of water salinity in coastal systems. It is shown that with an increase in the salinity of waters, the habitats of phytoplankton populations shift, and marine species invasively replace freshwater species of algae.

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