Yield forecasting for wheat and corn in Hungary by satellite remote sensing

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Abstract
We have developed an advanced version of our yield estimation method [Ferencz et al., 2004 Cs, Ferencz , Bognár, P. , Lichtenberger, J. , Hamar, D. , Gy, Tarcsai , Timár, G. , Molnár, G. , Sz, Pásztor , Steinbach, P. , Székely, B. , Ferencz, O.E. and Ferencz-Árkos, I. 2004. Crop yield estimation by satellite remote sensing. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 25: 4113–4149. [Google Scholar] , Crop yield estimation by satellite remote sensing. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 25, pp. 4113–4149], that is able to provide reliable forecasts for corn and wheat, several weeks before the harvest. The forecasting method is based on the data of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instruments of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POES). The method was applied to Hungary between the years 1996 and 2000. The forecasted yield values are all within 5% reliability with respect to the actual yield data produced by classic (non-satellite based) methods and provided by the Hungarian Statistical Office, with the exception of 1997, where the absolute error is about 8%.

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