Analysis of Risk Factors Predictive of Early Mortality and Urgent ERCP in Acute Cholangitis

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Abstract
Multifactor prognostic scoring systems have been developed for acute pancreatitis to identify those patients with a potentially poor prognosis. A similar system for patients with acute cholangitis is still lacking. To identify common clinical, biochemical, and etiologic variables that can be used to predict mortality and the need for early endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in patients with acute cholangitis. A retrospective study of 108 patients with acute cholangitis was performed at a single center. Univariate analysis and logistic regression were used to identify variables that were significantly associated and predictive of mortality and need for early ERCP. Univariate analysis identified 18 variables significantly associated with mortality and 15 variables that predicted the need for early ERCP. Through logistic regression total bilirubin (P<0.01), partial prothrombin time (P<0.01), and presence of a liver abscess (P<0.01) were found to be significant in predicting mortality. Alanine aminotransferase (P<0.01) and white blood cell count (P<0.01) were determined to be predictive of a need for early ERCP. The scoring systems for predicting mortality (93.9%, 80.7%) and early ERCP (98%, 91%) were both highly sensitive and specific, respectively. Acute cholangitis is a disease that presents with varying severity. We report a scoring system that can be used to identify patients at high risk of early mortality and those that may benefit from earlier ERCP.

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