Evaluation of the Strategies to Control COVID-19 Pandemic in Four European Countries

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Abstract
On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) has officially declared the novel coronavirus outbreak a pandemic. The national governments deployed a series of severe control measures and a set of public health policies in order to stop the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this study is to investigate the correlation between specific interventions and incident cases during the second wave in multiple and specific countries. The observational study was based on data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) source retrieved from October 1st, 2020 to January 10, 2021. Thirteen specific indicators related to measures adopted were considered. Four European countries were taken into account: Italy, German, Spain and UK. A vector autoregression (VAR) model and the Granger Causality test were performed to allow for an assessment of any possible effect induced by each control measure against the overall pandemic growth. Wald test was conducted to compute p-values. No correlation between the applied measures and incident cases in the four countries was shown by the Granger causality test. Only closings of workplaces (C2) and limits on private gatherings showed (C4) a significant correlation with incident cases in UK and restrictions on internal movement between cities/regions in Germany. The Granger causality also tested that C2 and C4 forecasted the decrease of incident cases after a time lag of 6–30 days in UK and Germany, respectively. Policy makers must analyze the context in which policies are set because of effectiveness of interventions can be influenced by local context and, especially, by socio-economic and demographic characteristics, and make a proper communication to support the resilience of the population capable of guaranteeing adherence to the interventions implemented.

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