Abstract
Climate feedbacks are expected to increase over time due to the “pattern effect,” which describes the influence of the pattern of surface warming on global climate feedbacks. Delayed warming in the tropical east Pacific - as seen in abrupt4xCO 2 simulations - causes increases in climate feedbacks and warming. Several explanations for the relationship between the pattern of sea-surface temperature (SST) warming and climate feedbacks have been proposed, but previous literature has not reached a consensus. Previous literature has often highlighted the role of “tropospheric stability,” whose changes are highly correlated with changes in low clouds with warming. Relatedly, a “circus tent" model posits that in regions of deep convection, convection communicates local SST anomalies vertically. The pattern of SST response also influences the strength of the “Walker circulation”. We introduce a new ensemble of patch experiments and use it, along with observations and reanalysis of the historical period, to evaluate these three proposed mechanisms, in isolation and their relationship to one another. The ensemble of patch experiments is created using the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6) by applying SST patches consistent with the Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP) protocol. This ensemble uses a satellite simulator package, enabling enhanced cloud diagnostics, which reveals that tropical marine low-cloud feedbacks are sensitive to SST anomalies in deep convective regions (nonlocally). Consistently, we find evidence that the circus tent and lower tropospheric stability mechanisms largely explain the relationship between the pattern of SST warming and climate feedbacks and are closely related to one another.