European Target of 10% Strict Protection could Benefit Fisheries within a Decade

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Abstract
Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a proven conservation tool, but their effects on adjacent fisheries remain unclear, contributing to ongoing debate over whether achieving global biodiversity targets will ultimately benefit or disadvantage fisheries. Using the French Gulf of Lion MPA network as an example, we applied a spatio-temporal mechanistic model with 56 functional groups to assess the ecological and fisheries outcomes of meeting the European Commission target of 10% strict protection. We show that locating networks of strict protection in the most productive areas, even when overlapping with fishing grounds, can generate positive fisheries outcomes with increased catch and revenues in comparison with a business-as-usual scenario, with no additional protection. In some scenarios, revenues recovered after 6 years, while catches took more than a decade to recover, and both were preceded by small short-term declines. In contrast, random placement of strict protection, as well as strategies avoiding fishing grounds and minimizing short-term conflict, may impose costs on the fishing sector without co-delivering positive outcomes. Our results highlight how strategically designed networks of fully protected areas can contribute to both conservation and sustainable use targets, informing broader global conservation planning efforts.