Taking Sides with the US Against China?—An Analysis of the Taiwanese Choice

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Abstract
As Taiwan is now recognized as one of the major flashpoints for potential conflict between the US and China, one strategic choice confronting Taiwanese citizens is whether Taiwan should take sides with the US against China. To answer this question, we analyze survey data collected in Taiwan by Duke University in October 2020. We find that Taiwanese support for siding with the US against China has less to do with respondents’ party affiliation and views on unification or independence but more to do with circumstantial factors, such as their attitudes on “distrusting China” and “appeasing China.” Specifically, Taiwanese who believe that a moderate policy would be effective in preventing war in the Taiwan Strait are less likely to support such an alliance. Those who believe that China cannot be trusted to honor its peace commitment, or that it may use economic coercion against Taiwan, are more likely to support taking the US side against China. Our findings have several policy implications: if China wants to reduce the possibility of a US-Taiwan alliance, it should alleviate Taiwanese people’s distrust of its peace commitment toward Taiwan. Intensifying military threats against Taiwan is counterproductive, because it would invite US intervention, which in turn would increase Taiwanese support for a US-Taiwan alliance.
Funding Information
  • Swiss National Science Foundation

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