Research on the decoupling effect and driving factors of industrial carbon emissions in Hubei province

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Abstract
Under the “dual carbon” goal, the new quality productivity in the industrial energy sector will become an important force in promoting the green and high-quality development of Hubei Province’s economy and society. The article comprehensively uses the Tapio decoupling model and LMDI decomposition method, and empirically analyzes the decoupling effect and driving factors of industrial carbon emissions in Hubei Province from 2006 to 2022 using panel data of industrial industries. Research has found that the growth of Hubei’s industrial economy and carbon emissions have undergone a fluctuating process of "strong decoupling → weak decoupling → expansion negative decoupling". For a considerable period of time in the future, the industrial economic growth and carbon emissions in Hubei will still be in a weak or expanding negative decoupling state. From the decomposition results, it can be seen that the trend of changes in the energy intensity index and carbon intensity index shows a high degree of consistency, and the energy intensity index has become the main factor driving the decrease in Hubei’s industrial carbon intensity index. However, the impact of energy structure effects and industrial structure effects on industrial carbon emissions is relatively weak, and the dividends brought by structural effects are still not significant. On this basis, the article proposes relevant policy recommendations, providing theoretical basis and policy basis for empowering high-quality industrial development in Hubei Province with new quality productivity in the post epidemic era.
Funding Information
  • the Research Project of Hubei Soft Science Plan (2024EDA117)

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