The role of drought conditions on the recent increase in wildfire occurrence in the high Andean regions of Peru

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Abstract
Wildfire occurrence has increased sharply in the last two decades in the Peruvian Andes. There is, however, little research on wildfires and their impacts. This study explores the conditions conducive to wildfire during 2020. MODIS images were collected to estimate the development of vegetation. In addition, ground-based monthly and satellite-based daily precipitation data were collected. Daily precipitation regularity was evaluated using a concentration index (CI), while monthly precipitation was used to estimate the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). We used also the Global Vegetation Moisture Index (GVMI), which is a useful indicator of vegetation dynamics based on vegetation moisture. Our results do not indicate a direct link between rainfall regularity (lowest CI values) and development of vegetation. Although the SPI drought analysis using seasonal rainfall indicated nearly normal conditions during 2019–2020, analysis of dry-day frequency (DDF) suggests that the dry period played an important role between September and November 2020, producing conditions similar to the droughts of 2005, 2010 and 2016. GVMI also showed below-average values from April to November. We corroborate the usefulness of DDF for monitoring the potential increase in wildfire conditions. A controlled burn policy could offer a more useful way to reduce the impacts of wildfire.

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