The Missing Black Hole in the Large Magellanic Cloud: A Dynamical Prediction for Its Present-day Location

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Abstract
There are indications that the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) hosts a central supermassive black hole (SMBH), yet no direct detection exists: one reason is that its present-day location need not necessarily coincide with the photometric or kinematic centers. Here we frame a dynamical targeting problem and predict the present-day sky location of the LMC SMBH. We model the recent LMC–Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) interaction, which induces a bar-disk offset, and integrate SMBH orbits within a realistic, time-dependent LMC–SMC–Milky Way (MW) potential. We show that the MW tidal field at the present epoch exceeds that of the SMC by at least an order of magnitude, setting a preferred direction for coherent, vertical low-amplitude displacements, while the disk asymmetry drives in-plane offsets. Projecting onto the observed LMC frame, the mean of our predicted SMBH probability distribution is located at ( α , δ ) = ( 80 . ″ 23 , − 69 . ″ 55 ) g, with a 1 σ confidence ellipse having semimajor and semiminor axes of ( a , b ) = ( 1 . ″ 34 , 0 . ″ 56 ) , respectively. This mean is ∼6′ north of the adopted dynamical center, while the mode coincides with the dynamical center and lies well within the 1 σ confidence region. Furthermore, all literature estimates of the LMC center considered here fall within the 2 σ confidence region. This provides a concrete, testable target for ongoing and upcoming spectroscopic surveys, transforming the search for the LMC SMBH from an unconstrained problem into a focused observational strategy.
Funding Information
  • Wisconsin Space Grant Consortium (RFP25 7_0)

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