SARS-CoV-2 BA.5 vaccine breakthrough risk and severity compared with BA.2: a case-case and cohort study using Electronic Health Records in Portugal

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Abstract
Background In a context of multiple Omicron lineages circulation, it is relevant to clarify the effect of vaccination and previous infections on the risk of infection and severe post-infection outcomes. Methods Using electronic health records and SARS-CoV-2 laboratory surveillance data, we conducted a case-case and a cohort study covering the period of Omicron BA.2/BA.5 lineage replacement in Portugal, to compare vaccine effectiveness of complete primary and booster dose against infection, COVID-19 hospitalization, and mortality. Variant classification was performed through whole-genome sequencing (WGS) or Spike Gene Target Failure (SGTF). Findings Between April 25 and June 10, 2022, within a total of 27702 collected samples, 55.5% were classified as BA.2 and the remaining as BA.5. We observed no evidence of reduced vaccine effectiveness for the primary complete vaccination (OR=1.07, CI95%:0.93-1.23) or booster dose vaccination (OR=0.96, CI95%:0.84-1.09) against BA.5 infection compared with BA.2. The protection against reinfection was inferior in BA.5 cases when compared with BA.2 (OR=1.44; CI95%:1.30-1.60). Among those infected with BA.5, booster vaccination was associated with 77% and 88% of reduction in risk of COVID-19 hospitalization and death, respectively, while higher risk reduction was found for BA.2 cases, with 93% and 94%, respectively. Interpretation This study shows that the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5 lineage is associated with higher odds of reinfection compared with Omicron BA.2, regardless of the vaccination status. Although less effective compared with BA.2, COVID-19 booster vaccination still offers substantial protection against severe outcomes following BA.5 infection.

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