Can Farmers' Tactical Decisions Jointly Lift Profits and Lower Emissions in a Mixed Enterprise Farm System?

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Abstract
This study assesses how weather‐year‐dependent sheep and crop management tactics affect farm profitability and farm system greenhouse gas emissions in the central Great Southern region in Australia. To investigate the impact of farmers' tactical decisions on farm profit and emissions, a whole farm optimisation model known as the Australian Farm Optimisation Model is employed. The model describes a typical mixed enterprise farm, the weather‐year variation that underpins the farm system and the plethora of strategic and tactical management options available to the farm manager. Modelling results reveal that utilising all tactical management options increases expected farm profit by 26% and expected emissions increase by 11%; however, the emissions intensity with respect to farm profit is reduced. Access to tactical options can greatly improve profits and emissions intensity in particular types of weather‐years. Emission and profit outcomes are a combination of direct effects of individual tactics and the strategic structural shifts they trigger across the whole farm (enterprise mix, stocking rate), underscoring the value of whole‐farm optimisation models for guiding management and policy. The modelling results also reveal that assessing the value and emission impact of tactics depends on the other tactics already available to the farm manager. This indicates the need for whole farm system analysis if the stacking or bundling of tactical options in agricultural systems is to be properly understood and estimated.

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