STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR OPTIMUM RESERVOIR OPERATION1

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Abstract
For a multipurpose single reservoir a deterministic optimal operating policy can be readily devised by the dynamic programming method. However, this method can only be applied to sets of deterministic stream flows as might be used repetitively in a Monte Carlo study or possibly in a historical study. This paper reports a study in which an optimal operating policy for a multipurpose reservoir was determined, where the optimal operating policy is stated in terms of the state of the reservoir indicated by the storage volume and the river flow in the preceding month and uses a stochastic dynamic programming approach. Such a policy could be implemented in real time operation on a monthly basis or it could be used in a design study. As contrasted with deterministic dynamic programming, this method avoids the artificiality of using a single set of stream flows. The data for this study are the conditional probabilities of the stream flow in successive months, the physical features of the reservoir in question, and the return functions and constraints under which the system operates.

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