Long-Term Spatiotemporal Variation of Drought Patterns over Saudi Arabia

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Abstract
Understanding the historical patterns of drought changes is important to effectively manage and mitigate drought. This paper aims to provide a quantitative assessment of the spatiotemporal drought patterns in Saudi Arabia from 1985 to 2022. The study used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to examine drought patterns on both monthly and yearly timescales. The findings indicate a significant trend of increasing drought conditions in certain regions of the Kingdom from 1985 to 2022. The average rates of change for SPI-03, SPI-06, and SPI-12 were found to be −0.003 yr−1, −0.0034 yr−1, and −0.0099 yr−1, respectively. Droughts were more frequent and persistent in the northern regions of the country, while the western region experienced severe and intense droughts. There were fewer drought occurrences before 2000, but droughts became more frequent after 2000, with large-scale impacts occurring during 2007–2008 and 2013–2014. These findings have important implications for water management strategies and can help mitigate the effects of drought, as they identify hotspot regions across Saudi Arabia at different timescales. Overall, it is important to implement province-specific efforts to reduce environmental vulnerabilities to droughts.

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