On the Northward Shift of Agro-Climatic Zones in Europe under Different Climate Change Scenarios

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Abstract
We investigate future changes of agro-climatic zones over Europe under two different IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) based on an ensemble of 11 bias-corrected regional climate model simulations covering the period 1981–2100. Eight distinct agro-climatic zones were identified by applying the k-means clustering method for the reference period 1981–2010 on two temperature-related parameters: the growing season length and the active temperature sum. Our results point towards a strong northward shift of the agro-climatic zones, especially under RCP8.5, towards the end of the century. A significant shift of the agro-climatic zones is also projected for RCP4.5 in the near-future and the end-of-the-century periods for large areas in Europe.
Funding Information
  • the General Secretariat for Research and Innovation (T12ERA5-00075)
  • 2019–2020 BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals (T12ERA5-00075)

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