Predicting visual function before glaucoma onset from baseline optical coherence tomography scans using deep learning

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Abstract
Background: The visual field (VF) test results of many eyes with glaucoma progress despite treatment. This suggests that some eyes are either untreated or that the management of intraocular pressure (IOP) does not influence the outcome. In this work, we explore whether future VF parameters can be predicted from a baseline optical coherence retinal nerve fibre layer (OCT-RNFL) scan using a deep learning model. Methods: The model was developed using 1792 eyes from 1610 patients, and externally validated on 151 eyes from a second centre using the same Zeiss Cirrus machine and 281 eyes from a third centre using scans obtained from a different (Heidelberg Spectralis) machine. The Vision Transformers (ViT)-based regression model was trained on baseline OCT-RNFL scans to predict three key VF indices (follow-up interval: 4.74 ± 2.59 years). Model performance was evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: The model achieved an overall MAE of 2.07 (95% CI: 1.91-2.22) and RMSE of 2.87 (95% CI: 2.60-3.14) on the internal validation set. On external validation, the model showed comparable performance with an MAE of 2.07 (95% CI: 1.8-2.35) for the external validation (Zeiss OCT) cohort and 2.11 (95% CI: 1.93-2.31) for the external validation (Heidelberg OCT) cohort. Saliency maps revealed that the inner and outer RNFL layers were key structures in driving the model’s predictions. Conclusions: Our ViT-based regression model effectively predicts key VF indices objectively from a single OCT-RNFL scan, with strong performance across two OCT devices, offering a novel tool for predicting glaucoma progression.

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