Bug prediction based on fine-grained module histories

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Abstract
There have been many bug prediction models built with historical metrics, which are mined from version histories of software modules. Many studies have reported the effectiveness of these historical metrics. For prediction levels, most studies have targeted package and file levels. Prediction on a fine-grained level, which represents the method level, is required because there may be interesting results compared to coarse-grained (package and file levels) prediction. These results include good performance when considering quality assurance efforts, and new findings about the correlations between bugs and histories. However, fine-grained prediction has been a challenge because obtaining method histories from existing version control systems is a difficult problem. To tackle this problem, we have developed a fine-grained version control system for Java, Historage. With this system, we target Java software and conduct fine-grained prediction with well-known historical metrics. The results indicate that fine-grained (method-level) prediction outperforms coarse-grained (package and file levels) prediction when taking the efforts necessary to find bugs into account. Using a correlation analysis, we show that past bug information does not contribute to method-level bug prediction.

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