A Framework for Short- vs. Long-Term Risk Indicators for Outsourcing Potential for Enterprises Participating in Global Value Chains: Evidence from Western Balkan Countries

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Abstract
This paper aims to present a benchmarking framework for short- and long-term risk of enterprises in emerging markets that seek integration in global value chains. The benchmark instrument aims in particular to assess short- and long-term risk based on accounting data and estimations of key financial ratios for enterprises located in the Western Balkan region and operating in the materials, industrials, and customer-discretionary industries. In total, the paper considers 310 enterprises. Given the geographical proximity of the region, the benchmark instrument for short- and long-term risks serves to assess the outsourcing potential these enterprises have toward foreign enterprises dominating larger markets such as the European value chain. The framework is applicable to a large-scale annual data series collected on subindustry level in order to obtain a more granular analysis of a particular industry and its respective value chain. The benchmarking instrument indicates that those subindustries performing better both at short- and long-term risk display a higher outsourcing potential and more opportunities for integration in global value chains.

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