On tail trend detection: modeling relative risk

Authors:
  • LHLaurens de Haan
    Laurens de Haan
  • ATAlbert Klein Tank
    Albert Klein Tank
  • CNCláudia Neves
    Cláudia Neves

Abstract
A simple and natural model is introduced for studying a trend in the tail of a probability distribution over time (or over space). Estimation and testing procedures are provided with application to rainfall data.