Regional surface temperature simulations over the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation and climate projections

The realism of a specific configuration of the WRF Regional Climate Model (RCM) to represent the observed temperature evolution over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) in the 1971–2005 period has been analyzed. The E-OBS observational dataset was used for this purpose. Also, the $$\textit{added value}$$added value of the WRF simulations with respect to the IPSL Earth System Model (ESM) used to drive the WRF RCM was evaluated. In general, WRF presents lower temperatures than in the observations (negative biases) over the IP. These biases are comparatively larger than those of the driving ESM. Once the biases are corrected, WRF provides an added value in terms of a higher spatial representation. WRF introduces more variability in some regions in comparison to gridded observation. Warming trends according to the observations are also well represented by the RCM. In the second part of this study, the projections of future climate performed with both the ESM and the RCM were evaluated for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios during the 21st century. Although both models simulate temperature increases, the RCM simulates a smaller warming than the ESM after the mid-21st century, except for winter. Using the WRF model, the maximum temperature increase reaches $$6\, ^\circ \hbox {C}$$6 ∘ C and $$3\, ^\circ \hbox {C}$$3 ∘ C for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 in the south east of the Iberian Peninsula by the end of the 21st century, respectively.