RACPR: Generative AI-Enhanced Risk-Aware Causal Path Re-Ranking for Interpretable Multimorbidity Risk Identification in Elderly Health Consultation Scenarios

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Abstract
Multimorbidity risk identification in elderly health consultation scenarios is challenging because chronic disease history and medication exposure may interact through complex causal pathways. Existing LLM-, RAG-, and graph-based retrieval methods often rely on semantic relevance or graph connectivity, which may be insufficient for identifying user-specific risk mechanisms. This study proposes RACPR, a generative AI-enhanced risk-aware causal path re-ranking framework for interpretable multimorbidity risk identification. RACPR ranks candidate causal paths by integrating user-entity alignment, causal coherence, risk contribution, and path length control and uses generative AI to transform selected paths into readable, path-grounded explanations. To support controlled algorithmic evaluation, we constructed a normalized benchmark of 1002 elderly multimorbidity consultation cases covering diabetes, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease. The benchmark and supporting knowledge graph were derived from publicly available biomedical and health information resources, including PubMed abstracts, guideline and review sources, DrugBank medication-safety evidence, and MedlinePlus-based terminology. Under a leakage-controlled setting, only age, diagnosed diseases, and medication exposures were used as model-accessible inputs, while abnormal indicators, support paths, and rationales were reserved for evaluation. On the test set, RACPR achieved an Accuracy of 0.659, a Precision of 0.602, a Recall of 0.938, an F1-score of 0.733, and an AUC of 0.777. Ablation analysis showed that removing the risk-aware component reduced AUC from 0.777 to 0.428. Benchmark-level explanation evaluation further showed improvements in path consistency, path hit rate, and health-oriented plausibility. These findings indicate that risk-aware causal path re-ranking improved risk ranking and explanation grounding relative to the evaluated baselines under the controlled benchmark setting.
Funding Information
  • Beijing Natural Science Foundation of China (L222048)

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