Buddi Sagar Poudel

It is likely that changing monsoon patterns and changes in other climatic parameters will have an impact on forests. Tree growth and biomass may respond differently across the different forest recovery contexts after the disturbance regimes. It is essential to understand the response of different tree species in order to comprehend their ability to adapt to climate change. An enhanced understanding of how tree species dynamics change with a substantial shift in climate attributes is crucial to develop adaptive forest management strategies. Advances in the statistical application of tree ring data results in more reliable dating with the high accuracy and precision of any of the paleo-records and robust and long-term reconstructions of key indices such as temperature and precipitation. In this study, we analyzed how different species inhabiting together respond to changes in climatic variables using dendroclimatic analysis. We assessed the growth performance of Abies pindrow, Pinus wallichiana, and Tsuga dumosa in the temperate region of Nepal. The climate sensitivity of the species was analyzed using bootstrap correlation analysis and the climate-growth relationship over time was assessed using the moving correlation function. Tree ring growth of Abies pindrow is stimulated by higher June temperatures and higher March precipitation. This positive relationship is consistent and stationary over time. However, in the other two species, both response function and moving correlation analysis showed that the relationship between climate and growth is inconsistent and changes over time.

The Himalayan region has already witnessed profound climate changes detectable in the cryosphere and the hydrological cycle, already resulting in drastic socio-economic impacts. We developed a 619-yea-long tree-ring-width chronology from the central Nepal Himalaya, spanning the period 1399–2017 CE. However, due to low replication of the early part of the chronology, only the section after 1600 CE was used for climate reconstruction. Proxy climate relationships indicate that temperature conditions during spring (March–May) are the main forcing factor for tree growth of Tsuga dumosa at the study site. We developed a robust climate reconstruction model and reconstructed spring temperatures for the period 1600–2017 CE. Our reconstruction showed cooler conditions during 1658–1681 CE, 1705–1722 CE, 1753–1773 CE, 1796–1874 CE, 1900–1936 CE, and 1973 CE. Periods with comparably warmer conditions occurred in 1600–1625 CE, 1633–1657 CE, 1682–1704 CE, 1740–1752 CE, 1779–1795 CE, 1936–1945 CE, 1956–1972 CE, and at the beginning of the 21st century. Tropical volcanic eruptions showed only a sporadic impact on the reconstructed temperature. Also, no consistent temperature trend was evident since 1600 CE. Our temperature reconstruction showed positive teleconnections with March–May averaged gridded temperature data for far west Nepal and adjacent areas in Northwest India and on the Southwest Tibetan plateau. We found spectral periodicities of 2.75–4 and 40–65 years frequencies in our temperature reconstruction, indicating that past climate variability in central Nepal might have been influenced by large-scale climate modes, like the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

The Himalaya region of Nepal encompasses significant habitats for several endangered species, among them the brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus). However, owing to the remoteness of the region and a dearth of research, knowledge on the conservation status, habitat and population size of this species is lacking. Our aim in this paper is to report a habitat survey designed to assess the distribution and habitat characteristics of the brown bear in the Nepalese Himalaya, and to summarize a conservation action plan for the species devised at a pair of recent workshops held in Nepal. Results of our survey showed that brown bear were potentially distributed between 3800 m and 5500 m in the high mountainous region of Nepal, across an area of 4037 km² between the eastern border of Shey Phoksundo National Park (SPNP) and the Manasalu Conservation Area (MCA). Of that area, 2066 km² lie inside the protected area (350 km² in the MCA; 1716 km² in the Annapurna Conservation Area) and 48% (1917 km²) lies outside the protected area in the Dolpa district. Furthermore, 37% of brown bear habitat also forms a potential habitat for blue sheep (or bharal, Pseudois nayaur), and 17% of these habitats is used by livestock, suggesting a significant potential for resource competition. Several plant species continue to be uprooted by local people for fuel wood. Based on the results of our field survey combined with consultations with local communities and scientists, we propose that government and non-government organizations should implement a three-stage program of conservation activities for the brown bear. This program should: (a) Detail research activities in and outside the protected area of Nepal; (b) support livelihood and conservation awareness at local and national levels; and (c) strengthen local capacity and reduce human-wildlife conflict in the region.