Cristiano Fidani

(1) Background: The issue of providing evidence for some electromagnetic phenomena occurring with strong earthquakes has not yet received a conclusive response. Here, long-term continuous monitoring of electromagnetic signals detected by the Central Italy Electromagnetic Network in the atmosphere was reported, and data from the Avigliano Umbro station from the beginning of October 2013 to early January 2015 were analysed. (2) Methods: Spectrogram recordings of extremely low-frequency electric fluctuations were analysed for frequency-time well-defined structures. Electrical oscillations with intensities exceeding a threshold were extracted and compared with moderate earthquakes using Pearson correlations. (3) Results: The cross-correlation between the electric activity of non-meteorological origin and the seismic activity observed within 70 km around the station during the same period was calculated. A correlation peak at +7 days emerged, suggesting that the electric phenomenon occurs mainly 7 days before earthquakes, which has a probability < 1% of being due to chance. (4) Conclusions: The electric oscillation phenomenon is concluded to have a relationship with moderate seismic activity. They show moderate predictive skill. A possible interpretation relates to fluids escaping from the ground. These results are useful for risk mitigation by enabling the computation of the conditional occurrence probability of a seismic event.

A thermal infrared (TIR) camera was installed at Mefite Lake in Valle d’Ansanto, Irpinia (Italy), to assess whether small variations in cold CO₂ flux can be resolved thermally. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic attempt to extract short-period degassing dynamics from TIR data at Mefite. Infrared thermal images taken over a three-hour nighttime interval revealed the spatial distribution and extent of natural CO₂ emissions. The high sampling frequency of one minute detected unexpected thermal variability from the source. The extent of temperature variations across the entire site reached almost 3 °C, with durations typically ranging from a few minutes to tens of minutes. Spectral analysis of the temperature time series reported a 1/f-type noise pattern, with significant periods of 2–3 min, 5 min, 26 min, and 61 min observed at different locations. Further intermediate periods were observed at individual points. Differences and delays in temperature variations appeared to be related to distance from the structure’s centre and the presence of water. These temperature fluctuations were interpreted as changes in the gaseous emission flow caused by a few kPa of CO₂ escaping due to pressure variations. The gas thermally interacts with the underlying soil, adding or removing heat at the surface. These results demonstrate that high-frequency infrared thermography provides a sensitive and practical tool for quantifying short-term flux variability at natural CO₂ vents and for improving the characterisation of their degassing dynamics.

A key component of research on disaster risk in modern-age society in the inland areas of the Campania Region, southern Italy, was discovered in parish registers. Ecclesiastical archives, containing thousands of largely unpublished pages, served as a rich source of information on disruption and casualties. The parish registers preserved in these archives from the 16th century provide demographic records as well as notes on the most terrible events that affected society at the time. They include the catastrophic effects of seismic events recorded in this sector of the southern Apennines, an area characterised by high seismicity due to the complex dynamics of the convergence zone between the African and Eurasian plates. New findings reveal a more precise number and previously unreported deaths in several villages, confirming and suggesting some macroseismic intensities for the 1694 seismic event; moreover, further evidence was found for the hypothesised 1692 seismic event. A greater number of deaths was observed in some villages during the 1702 and 1732 events. Parish documents provided details about local construction techniques adopted after the well-known earthquake of 1732, including the use of more resilient materials and design modifications.

Solar activity and its sharp variability generally produce large-scale disturbances in Earth’s magnetosphere, inducing geomagnetic fluctuations that can be measured globally through ground-based magnetometers and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite observations. These disturbances, driven primarily by solar wind variability and coronal mass ejections, may cause geomagnetic storms and induce electrical currents in Earth’s ionosphere and crust, leading to measurable electromagnetic signatures. Considering that both tectonic deformation and geomagnetic variations affect the physical state of Earth’s lithosphere (even though with different weights), possible links between solar-driven geomagnetic activity and seismic processes have been proposed in the literature.Preliminary analyses indicated that while geomagnetic storms produce large and well-defined electromagnetic perturbations in the Earth–ionosphere system and well-recorded by geomagnetic ground magnetometers, any corresponding modulation of seismicity is subtle and difficult to distinguish from background tectonic variability. Nonetheless, localised correlations in highly conductive, fluid-rich fault systems suggest that electromagnetic effects may contribute to earthquake timing in specific geological settings when faults are near the critical failure due to accumulated tectonic stress. Over the past several decades, a number of hypotheses have proposed that such geomagnetic disturbances could influence the timing of earthquake occurrence by modulating crustal stress, pore-fluid pressure, or electrochemical processes along active faults.This contribution emerged from the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) Team 23-583 (57) meeting activities, which proposed a new hypothesis of geomagnetic–seismic coupling where geomagnetic fluctuations generate electric currents within the conductive layers of the lithosphere. The hypothesis consists of electrolytic deposition of elements on fault surfaces due to telluric currents acting in lithospheric fluids, capable of weakening the cohesion between foot and hanging walls and consequently inducing slippage. Such a hypothesis is compared with others, including (1) Lorentz-force interactions between induced telluric currents and crustal rock masses, (2) electromagnetic triggering of electrokinetic fluid migration in fault zones, and (3) magnetoelastic effects in stressed, magnetically susceptible rocks. AcknowledgmentWe acknowledge ISSI (Bern) /ISSI-BJ (Beijing) for supporting the International Team 23-583 (57) “Investigation of the Lithosphere Atmosphere Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) Mechanism before the Natural Hazards” led by Dedalo Marchetti and Essam Ghamry, and in particular, Prof. Dimitar Ouzounov for fruitful scientific discussions.

Mitigating the consequences of flash rainfall has become essential for the safety of populations and the promotion of local tourism. A non-structural measure could involve a sensor-based nowcasting system to detect increasingly frequent and intense rainfall events driven by climate change. Therefore, developing wide-range, connected, cheap, small, and easy-to-install rain gauges is desirable. To achieve a useful network of monitoring, a set of technologies such as electrodynamic sensor devices supported by real-time processing and the Internet of Things is proposed. This comparative investigation aimed to evaluate the implementation-friendly network of small, low-cost, solid-state pluviometers for near-real-time monitoring of an early warning system. The ability of a recent patent to provide cumulative rainfall estimates every ten seconds was evaluated for river system flooding, which extends the warning time by 3–4 min in a 1 km² basin. Our results found that even with a rainfall uncertainty of 10%, a network of these new instruments reduced errors in flood wave severity and time estimations. Moreover, intensity–duration thresholds of landslide triggering and debris movements can be modified by flash rainfalls. Specifically, coastal areas with high-density populations can greatly benefit from this solution.

Due to the significant earthquake-related perturbations observed in the ionosphere by ground-based stations and space-borne satellites, scientists have increasingly focused on the studying the possible coupling mechanism among lithosphere, atmosphere and ionosphere. In this work, we contribute to this research, analyzing the phase of preparation of the 2022 Ms6.8 Luding (China) earthquake with a multi-parameter and multi-level approach from ground and satellite data taken in lithosphere, atmosphere and ionosphere, including the b value, earth resistivity, ELF magnetic field emissions, atmospheric electric field, surface temperature, foF2 from Ionosonde, GNSS TEC, magnetic field and electron density from CSES and Swarm satellites, etc. The results are encouraging confirming a chain of processes starting from ground and proceeding to the above atmosphere and ionosphere.

On 6 February 2023, Turkey experienced its most powerful earthquake in over 80 years, with a moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.7. This was then followed by a second earthquake of Mw 7.6 just nine hours later. According to the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) models, such a significant seismic activity is expected to cause anomalies across various observables, from the Earth’s surface to the ionosphere. This multidisciplinary study investigates the preparatory phase of these two major earthquakes by identifying potential precursors across the lithosphere, atmosphere, and ionosphere. Our comprehensive analysis successfully identified and collected various anomalies, revealing that their cumulative occurrence follows an accelerating trend, either exponential or power-law. Most anomalies appeared to progress from the lithosphere upward through the atmosphere to the ionosphere, suggesting a sequential chain of processes across these geospheres. Notably, some anomalies deviated from this overall trend, manifesting as oscillating variations. We propose that these anomalies support a two-way coupling model preceding major earthquakes, highlighting the potential role of fluid chemistry in facilitating these processes.

This paper presents an analysis of anomalies detected during the preparatory phase of the 9 November 2022 M_L = 5.7 earthquake, occurring approximately 30 km off the coast of the Marche region in the Adriatic Sea (Italy). It was the largest earthquake in Italy in the last 5 years. According to lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) models, such earthquake could induce anomalies in various observable variables, from the Earth’s surface to the ionosphere. Therefore, a multiparametric and multilayer approach based on ground and satellite data collected in each geolayer was adopted. This included the revised accelerated moment release method, the identification of anomalies in atmospheric parameters, such as Skin Temperature and Outgoing Longwave Radiation, and ionospheric signals, such as Es and F2 layer parameters from ionosonde measurements, magnetic field from Swarm satellites, and energetic electron precipitations from NOAA satellites. Several anomalies were detected in the days preceding the earthquake, revealing that their cumulative occurrence follows an exponential trend from the ground, progressing towards the upper atmosphere and the ionosphere. This progression of anomalies through different geolayers cannot simply be attributed to chance and is likely associated with the preparation phase of this earthquake, supporting the LAIC approach.