Joseph Beyene

Little is known about the impact of enrollment on therapeutic clinical trials on adverse event rates. Primary objective was to describe the impact of clinical trial registration on sterile site microbiologically documented infection for children with newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML). We conducted a multicenter cohort study that included children aged ≤18 years with de novo AML. Primary outcome was microbiologically documented sterile site infection. Infection rates were compared between those registered and not registered on clinical trials. Five hundred seventy-four children with AML were included of which 198 (34.5%) were registered on a therapeutic clinical trial. Overall, 400 (69.7%) had at least one sterile site microbiologically documented infection. In multiple regression, registration on clinical trials was independently associated with a higher risk of microbiologically documented sterile site infection [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.53; p = 0.040] and viridans group streptococcal infection (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.08-1.98; p = 0.015). Registration on trials was not associated with Gram-negative or invasive fungal infections. Children with newly diagnosed AML enrolled on clinical trials have a higher risk of microbiologically documented sterile site infection. This information may impact on supportive care practices in pediatric AML.

Introduction: The timely provision of critical care to hospitalised patients at risk for cardiopulmonary arrest is contingent upon identification and referral by frontline providers. Current approaches require improvement. In a single-centre study, we developed the Bedside Paediatric Early Warning System (Bedside PEWS) score to identify patients at risk. The objective of this study was to validate the Bedside PEWS score in a large patient population at multiple hospitals. Methods: We performed an international, multicentre, case-control study of children admitted to hospital inpatient units with no limitations on care. Case patients had experienced a clinical deterioration event involving either an immediate call to a resuscitation team or urgent admission to a paediatric intensive care unit. Control patients had no events. The scores ranged from 0 to 26 and were assessed in the 24 hours prior to the clinical deterioration event. Score performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUCROC) curve by comparison with the retrospective rating of nurses and the temporal progression of scores in case patients. Results: A total of 2,074 patients were evaluated at 4 participating hospitals. The median (interquartile range) maximum Bedside PEWS scores for the 12 hours ending 1 hour before the clinical deterioration event were 8 (5 to 12) in case patients and 2 (1 to 4) in control patients (P < 0.0001). The AUCROC curve (95% confidence interval) was 0.87 (0.85 to 0.89). In case patients, mean scores were 5.3 at 20 to 24 hours and 8.4 at 0 to 4 hours before the event (P < 0.0001). The AUCROC curve (95% CI) of the retrospective nurse ratings was 0.83 (0.81 to 0.86). This was significantly lower than that of the Bedside PEWS score (P < 0.0001). Conclusions: The Bedside PEWS score identified children at risk for cardiopulmonary arrest. Scores were elevated and continued to increase in the 24 hours before the clinical deterioration event. Prospective clinical evaluation is needed to determine whether this score will improve the quality of care and patient outcomes.

Inconsistent study findings of exercise on areal bone density highlight the need to include parameters of bone geometry and volumetric bone density measurements. Using a systematic review and meta-analysis, we found a decrease in bone loss through the maintenance of cortical and trabecular volumetric bone mineral density (BMD). Studies with longer exercise durations and larger sample sizes are needed. Exercise has long been recommended to prevent age-related loss of bone mass in postmenopausal women. However, inconsistent study findings on the effect of exercise on BMD preservation have highlighted the importance of extending the evaluation of bone to include the parameters of bone geometry. We conducted both a systematic review and meta-analysis of the effects of exercise on bone geometry and volumetric BMD in postmenopausal women. We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, and EMBASE from 1950 to April 2009 and included prospective, randomized controlled trials of healthy postmenopausal women where the intervention involved exercise or sport and outcomes included quantitative or peripheral quantitative computed tomography bone parameters. Outcome variables included: total volumetric BMD, cortical volumetric BMD (CvBMD), trabecular volumetric BMD (TrvBMD), total bone mineral content, cortical BMC, total bone area, cortical area, polar stress–strain index, and bone strength index. Six studies satisfied our inclusion and exclusion criteria. Lower extremity exercises resulted in small (∼0.9%) but significant improvements in TrvBMD of the distal tibia (p = 0.0006) and in CvBMD of the tibial shaft (p = 0.0007). Studies with longer durations of exercise (12 months) and those in early postmenopausal women showed significant changes in CvBMD at the tibial shaft. We conclude that exercise in postmenopausal women may decrease bone loss by maintaining cortical and trabecular volumetric BMD. To better understand the effect of exercise on bone geometric structure and strength, more studies of longer duration and larger sample sizes are needed.

Multivariate linear growth curves were used to model high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), triglycerides (TG), and systolic blood pressure (SBP) measured during four exams from 1659 independent individuals from the Framingham Heart Study. The slopes and intercepts from each of two phenotype models were tested for association with 348,053 autosomal single-nucleotide polymorphisms from the Affymetrix Gene Chip 500 k set. Three regions were associated with LDL intercept, TG slope, and SBP intercept (p < 1.44 × 10^-7). We observed results consistent with previously reported associations between rs599839, on chromosome 1p13, and LDL. We note that the association is significant with LDL intercept but not slope. Markers on chromosome 17q25 were associated with TG slope, and a single-nucleotide polymorphism on chromosome 7p11 was associated with SBP intercept. Growth curve models can be used to gain more insight on the relationships between SNPs and traits than traditional association analysis when longitudinal data has been collected. The power to detect association with changes over time may be limited if the subjects are not followed over a long enough time period.

Evaluation of the association between single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and disease outcomes is widely used to identify genetic risk factors for complex diseases. Although this analysis paradigm has made significant progress in many genetic studies, many challenges remain, such as the requirement of a large sample size to achieve adequate power. Here we use rheumatoid arthritis (RA) as an example and explore a new analysis strategy: pathway-based analysis to search for related genes and SNPs contributing to the disease. We first propose the application of measure of explained variation to quantify the predictive ability of a given SNP. We then use gene set enrichment analysis to evaluate enrichment of specific pathways, where pathways, are considered enriched if they consist of genes that are associated with the phenotype of interest above and beyond is expected by chance. The results are also compared with score tests for association analysis by adjusting for population stratification. Our study identified some significantly enriched pathways, such as "cell adhesion molecules," which are known to play a key role in RA. Our results showed that pathway-based analysis may identify other biologically interesting loci (e.g., rs1018361) related to RA: the gene (CTLA4) closest to this marker has previously been shown to be associated with RA and the gene is in the significant pathways we identified, even though the marker has not reached genome-wide significance in univariate single-marker analysis.

In high-dimensional studies such as genome-wide association studies, the correction for multiple testing in order to control total type I error results in decreased power to detect modest effects. We present a new analytical approach based on the higher criticism statistic that allows identification of the presence of modest effects. We apply our method to the genome-wide study of rheumatoid arthritis provided in the Genetic Analysis Workshop 16 Problem 1 data set. There is evidence for unknown bias in this study that could be explained by the presence of undetected modest effects. We compared the asymptotic and empirical thresholds for the higher criticism statistic. Using the asymptotic threshold we detected the presence of modest effects genome-wide. We also detected modest effects using 90th percentile of the empirical null distribution as a threshold; however, there is no such evidence when the 95th and 99th percentiles were used. While the higher criticism method suggests that there is some evidence for modest effects, interpreting individual single-nucleotide polymorphisms with significant higher criticism statistics is of undermined value. The goal of higher criticism is to alert the researcher that genetic effects remain to be discovered and to promote the use of more targeted and powerful studies to detect the remaining effects.

We propose the use of latent growth curve model to assess the influence of genetic, environmental, demographic, and lifestyle factors on multiple phenotypes related to coronary heart disease. We model four quantitative traits (systolic blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, and triglycerides) simultaneously in a multivariate framework that allows us to study their change over time, assess individual variation, and investigate cross-phenotype relationships. Environmental, demographic, and lifestyle covariates are included at different levels of the model as time-varying or time-invariant, as appropriate. To investigate the change over time attributed to genetic factors, we use candidate markers that have previously been shown to be associated with the quantitative traits. We illustrate our approach using independent observations from the offspring cohort of the Framingham Heart Study data.

Background: Development of efficient analytic methodologies for combining microarray results is a major challenge in gene expression analysis. The widely used effect size models are thought to provide an efficient modeling framework for this purpose, where the measures of association for each study and each gene are combined, weighted by the standard errors. A significant disadvantage of this strategy is that the quality of different data sets may be highly variable, but this information is usually neglected during the integration. Moreover, it is widely known that the estimated standard deviations are probably unstable in the commonly used effect size measures (such as standardized mean difference) when sample sizes in each group are small.Results: We propose a re-parameterization of the traditional mean difference based effect measure by using the log ratio of means as an effect size measure for each gene in each study. The estimated effect sizes for all studies were then combined under two modeling frameworks: the quality-unweighted random effects models and the quality-weighted random effects models. We defined the quality measure as a function of the detection p-value, which indicates whether a transcript is reliably detected or not on the Affymetrix gene chip. The new effect size measure is evaluated and compared under the quality-weighted and quality-unweighted data integration frameworks using simulated data sets, and also in several data sets of prostate cancer patients and controls. We focus on identifying differentially expressed biomarkers for prediction of cancer outcomes.Conclusion: Our results show that the proposed effect size measure (log ratio of means) has better power to identify differentially expressed genes, and that the detected genes have better performance in predicting cancer outcomes than the commonly used effect size measure, the standardized mean difference (SMD), under both quality-weighted and quality-unweighted data integration frameworks. The new effect size measure and the quality-weighted microarray data integration framework provide efficient ways to combine microarray results.