Michael Keall

Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) fitted to vehicles has proven road safety benefits in terms of preventing collisions with other vehicles. AEB with pedestrian detection (PAEB) extends this capability to protect vulnerable road users: the current paper evaluates these safety benefits in comparison with AEB without pedestrian detection and vehicles without any AEB. We analyzed data from Australian and New Zealand crashes involving injury over the period 2016-2023. The target crash types for PAEB analyzed either involved a vulnerable road user or the vehicle was rear-ended by another vehicle. Vehicles listed in Redbook (which provides vehicle specification information to assist Australian vehicle purchasers) with the feature "Control - Pedestrian Avoidance with Braking" were classed as having PAEB; for other vehicles, "Collision Mitigation - Forward (High speed)" and "Collision Mitigation - Forward (Low speed)" identified other forms of AEB. Using an induced exposure approach, crash rates associated with the safety technology fitted were estimated. Controlling for jurisdiction, speed limit area, vehicle market group, driver age group and sex, weather, day/night and year of crash, there was a 17% reduction (95% CI 5% to 27%) in the rate of pedestrian or cyclist collisions associated with vehicles equipped with PAEB relative to vehicles without any AEB system; for vehicles equipped with AEB without pedestrian detection, there was no reduction in the rate of pedestrian or cyclist collisions. For collisions with motorcycles, the associated benefits were smaller: compared to vehicles with no AEB system, there was a statistically significant 11% reduction associated with PAEB (95% CI 0% to 21%) and a non-significant 8% reduction (95% CI an increase of 4% to a decrease of 19%) associated with other AEB system fitment. There were insufficient cyclists in the data to estimate benefits specifically for cyclists but there was no evidence that the associated benefit was any less than for pedestrians. The safety benefits for vulnerable road users associated with AEB with pedestrian detection were estimated to be higher at nighttime, contrary to some findings in other studies. The safety benefits associated with PAEB for vulnerable road users are significantly greater than AEB without pedestrian detection, and this analysis of real-world crash outcomes shows these benefits extend to the protection of motorcyclists.

Blind spot monitoring systems help drivers avoid collisions with another vehicle when changing lanes. The systems provide visual and/or haptic warnings; active systems additionally avoid collision by applying brakes or steering the vehicle. This study aimed to estimate real-world effectiveness of these technologies as installed in the Australasian light vehicle fleet in Australasian road and driving conditions. Police-recorded crash data were studied for the years 2019-2023 from the Australian states Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, New South Wales and Western Australia and also New Zealand. Using quasi-induced exposure analysis, rates of lane change crash involvements were studied for vehicles manufactured from 2018, classified by whether they were fitted with blind spot monitoring systems or not. We found a statistically significant 15% reduction (95% CI 26%-3%) in lane change crashes for vehicles equipped with a blind spot monitoring system. There was indicative evidence that the system was more effective for male than female drivers. For crashes involving injury, the associated reduction was estimated to be larger: a 24% reduction (95% CI 38%-6%). Active systems were rare in our data, but the analysis suggested they may be even more effective than the warning systems. Despite the relatively low prevalence of lane change crashes generally, the estimated 15% reduction is significant. In the Australasian crash data analyzed, older drivers had an elevated rate of lane change crashes and may consequently gain greater benefit from blind spot monitoring systems.

Public rental housing in Aotearoa New Zealand is a safety net in a pressured housing market with often unaffordable rents. The needs and behaviours of public housing tenants may differ from more prosperous New Zealanders’. The present paper focuses on transport behaviours and preferences of this group, as part of a wider research programme (‘Public Housing and Urban Regeneration’) addressing tenant wellbeing and behaviour. Particular ways in which such tenants use transport are identified in Keall et al. [1]. To dig deeper on tenants’ transport patterns and access, and understand their willingness to reduce emissions, we surveyed 160 public housing tenants, via a mail-back questionnaire in mid-2023. The responses represented 66% of those approached. Key findings are that public housing tenants, while often using cars, especially as passengers, frequently use public transport (PT) (40% of respondents) and active transport (walking 68%; cycling 17%). However, tenants’ transport preferences are often unmet. For example, for everyday needs, 36% of respondents would prefer to use a car less; 42% said easily walkable access to shops or facilities would help in taking fewer car trips. Such findings from our survey suggest that housing providers, council planners and public transport operators should collaborate to make public rental housing as accessible as possible, locating new housing close to public and active transport facilities and shops; and recognising that tenants overwhelmingly see local easy access, including better PT, footpaths and cycle paths in their neighbourhood as making it easier to travel car-free, thereby reducing emissions.

Public housing tenants in many countries have multiple challenges, often including socioeconomic disadvantage, family health and disability limitations, and compromised potential to earn income. An understanding of this group’s travel behaviours is particularly salient when policies to limit carbon emissions are being considered because such policies can exacerbate transport inequities. The current study makes use of an ongoing national travel survey in New Zealand that uses in-person interviews. We studied travel behaviours from neighbourhoods with mostly public housing tenants compared to other areas with no, or low numbers of, public housing tenants. Respondents from public-housing-intensive areas tended to be younger, have lower incomes, have more dependent children, have fewer household vehicles, and reside in areas with the highest levels of socioeconomic deprivation, all features that are known to affect travel patterns. The public-housing-intensive areas had a much higher proportion of trips made as passengers and hence higher levels of car occupancy than people living in other areas. The distance driven per person was less than half that of other areas, as were carbon emissions per person arising from private vehicle travel. Public housing providers and transport planners need to collaborate so that public housing is close to public transport and active transport facilities to allow tenants ready access. Public housing tenants are likely to suffer aspects of transport poverty, and where policies designed to limit carbon emissions increase the price of fossil-fuelled private car travel, other affordable and accessible transport options need to be available.

Insulating homes has been shown to provide health benefits, but benefits for home safety have not been studied. The current study analyses hospitalised falls rates, making use of a large New Zealand cohort initially set up to study health benefits. This cohort consists of just under half a million people (n = 469,666; 53.3% female; mean age 35.7), half in an intervention group (n = 236,040; 53.6% female; mean age 36.2) who had their homes retrofitted with insulation early in the study period and half in a control group (n = 233,626; 52.9% female; mean age 35.3) with homes retrofitted later. We found that retrofitting programme was associated with changes in fall rates that varied in a non-linear way with age. Cubic splines were used to estimate a non-linear but continuous relationship between age and changes in fall rates. Although other research has indicated that home insulation and heating have a positive influence on older people’s wellbeing and ability to live independently, the current analysis indicated a safety benefit only for under-70-year-olds, not for older people; the population-wide change in fall hospitalisation rates associated with the programme estimated was null. The study highlights the importance of considering the benefits of home improvements, particularly for older people, in a holistic way that encompasses wellbeing as well as health and safety outcomes.

Background Electrification of the light vehicle fleet is a core component of decarbonisation policy globally. As transport is an important determinant of health, this process will likely impact a range of pathways to population health, outside of averted climate change. Methods A transport-health multistate lifetable model for Aotearoa/New Zealand was used to model changes in the vehicle fleet and transport behaviour patterns that could be expected as part of electrification in Aotearoa/New Zealand. These changes are related to the new energy source and the costs of driving. The potential health, equity, health system cost and environmental impacts of this transition were modelled through the pathways of physical activity, injury and air pollution (tailpipe and non-tailpipe). Results Compared with a scenario of 2018 vehicles and travel patterns projected forward, under the electrification scenario modelled by 2050, there would be a 21% increase in per capita kilometres travelled by car, a loss of 270 health adjusted life years (95% uncertainty interval (UI) −1000 to 500) and health system costs incurred of NZ$44 million 2018 dollars (95% UI NZ$−12 to NZ$110). While health impacts from air pollution decreased, in the electrification scenario road injury increased and there was a net health loss. Increasing the cost of driving, through distance-based charging, attenuated the negative health impacts. Conclusions These results suggest that the electrification of the light vehicle fleet has mixed health impacts. Researchers and policy-makers should take a cautious approach to claims that light fleet electrification will have co-benefits for population health and health equity.

The role of public housing in improving wellbeing for tenants and society is an important public policy issue. Public housing tenants in Aotearoa New Zealand have constrained incomes and their mode of transport has implications for their budgets, their wellbeing, and carbon emissions. Tenants’ daily life choices and wellbeing are influenced by the set of transport options available to them and the constraints and opportunities these options entail. What is important for wellbeing is also dependent on culture. Little is known, however, about the specific influences of transport on the wellbeing of public housing tenants and how that is mediated by the culture of particular groups, particularly Māori and Pacific people, who make up the majority of people in public housing in Aotearoa. In this article we review the literature on public housing, transport, and wellbeing, to establish what is known about how transport, and the access it affords, influence the wellbeing of public housing tenants. We searched Scopus and Web of Science for academic journal articles, published in English and available online, about public housing tenant wellbeing with regard to the transportation and location characteristics of public housing. We found that creating highly accessible public housing developments with options of various modes of travel is important for the wellbeing of tenants. We also found that understanding the specific needs and preferences of tenants, ensuring tenants have agency over how they travel, and engaging with tenants during transport decision-making are particularly important and often under-recognised for people in public housing. Finally, we identified substantial gaps in the literature around understanding transport needs and experiences from Māori and Pacific perspectives, emphasising the importance of including indigenous and ethnic minority views in future research.

ObjectivesPublicizing safety ratings of vehicles can motivate manufacturers to prioritize safety and help consumers choose safer vehicles, leading to safer fleets. The benefits of primary safety technologies that prevent crash occurrence are not currently incorporated in current ratings in a way that values their safety benefits consistently. We aimed to propose a method for assigning weights for each safety technology to account for established safety benefits using published effectiveness and prevalence from real-life data.MethodsTo illustrate this method, we present a worked example calculated using crash and injury data from Australia and New Zealand. The method proposed attenuates the weights for given safety technologies where two or more safety technologies fitted to the same vehicle are effective for the same types of crashes.ResultsIn the worked example using Australasian data, large SUVs were estimated to have the largest safety increment from the fitment of all the technologies considered compared to vehicles without these primary safety technologies, with an almost 17% reduction in crash occurrence. Cars with all the technologies fitted had estimated average crash reduction of between 11% and 12%.ConclusionsDifferent market groups have different crash patterns, so the safety attributable to safety technology fitment differs at the market group level. This study presents an approach for providing a summary measure of crash avoidance according to the fitment of safety technologies. If this measure is combined with an estimate of secondary safety (whether derived from existing crash and injury data or from new car crash assessment programs), the combined estimate then represents the important elements of safety provided by the vehicle. The methods presented here form a rational basis for assigning safety ratings to represent the benefits of swiftly developing safety technologies.

(1) Background: Fall injuries in the home present a major health burden internationally for all age groups. One effective intervention to prevent falls is home modification, but safety is only increased if opportunities to install safety modifications are taken up. This study sought to identify factors that may lead to a higher uptake of no-cost home modifications when these are offered to people living in the community. (2) Methods: We studied 1283 houses in the New Zealand cities of New Plymouth and Wellington. Using logistic regression, we modelled the odds of uptake according to the number of access steps, the provider who was undertaking the modifications, occupant ethnicity, prior fall injury history, and age group. (3) Results: Homes with older residents (age 65+) had higher uptake rates (35% vs. 27% for other homes). Larger numbers of access steps were associated with higher uptake rates. There was indicative evidence that homes with Indigenous Māori occupants had a higher uptake of the modifications for one of the two providers, but not the other. (4) Conclusions: No-cost home safety modifications offered via cold calling are likely to have relatively low uptake rates but the households that do consent to the modifications may be those who are more likely to benefit from the concomitant increased safety.

Reported obesity rates for adolescents in different urban and rural areas are inconsistent. We examined indicators of healthy and unhealthy dietary patterns among 1863 adolescents aged 13–18 years with a healthy or excess body weight attending 23 secondary schools in four different settlement types across the Otago region, New Zealand. An online survey included demographics and dietary behaviours. Height and weight were measured, and body mass index was calculated. New Zealand defined urban and rural settlement types were used. Home addresses determined a small area-level index of deprivation. Data were analysed using Chi-square tests and ANOVA. A logistic model was fitted to estimate adjusted odds ratios of excess weight. The proportion of adolescents with a healthy weight differed (p < 0.001) between the most (64.9%) and least (76.4%) deprived neighbourhood areas. There was only indicative evidence of differences between settlement types (p = 0.087). Sugar-sweetened beverage and fast-food consumption was more frequent in the most deprived areas (p < 0.001), and in urban versus rural settlements (p < 0.001). The most important associations with excess weight were area-level deprivation and ethnicity, but not settlement type. Prioritising socioeconomic factors irrespective of settlement type is necessary when developing interventions to improve dietary patterns and body weight status among adolescents.