József Garay

We consider an ideal promiscuity group of females, which implies that all males have the same average mating success. If females have concealed ovulation, then the males’ paternity chances are equal. We find that male-based monogamy will be fixed in females’ promiscuity group when the stochastic Darwinian selection is described by a Markov chain. We point out that in huge populations the relative advantage (difference between average fitness of different strategies) determines primarily the end of evolution; in the case of neutrality (means are equal) the smallest variance guarantees fixation (absorption) advantage; when the means and variances are the same, then the higher third moment determines which types will be fixed in the Markov chains.

When an opportunistic predator is looking for a given type of prey and encounters another one from different species, it tries to utilize this random opportunity. We characterize the optimal levels of this opportunism in the framework of stochastic models for the two prey-one predator case. We consider the spatial dispersal of preys and the optimal diet choice of predator as well. We show that when both preys have no handling time, the total opportunism provides maximal gain of energy for the predator. When handling times differ with prey, we find a conditional optimal behavior: for small density of both prey species the predator prefers the more valuable one and is entirely opportunistic. However, when the density of the more valuable prey is higher than that of the other species, then the predator prefers the first one and intentionally neglects the other. Furthermore, when the density of the less valuable prey is high and that of the other one is small, then predator will look for the less valuable prey and is therefore totally opportunistic. We demonstrate that prey preference is remunerative whenever the advantage of a proper prey preference is larger than the average cost of missed prey preference. We also propose a dynamics which explicitly contains two sides of shared predation: apparent mutualism and apparent competition, and we give conditions when the rare prey goes extinct

In ecology, if the considered area or space is large, the spatial distribution of individuals of a given plant species is never homogeneous; plants form different patches. The homogeneity change in space or in time (in particular, the related change-point problem) is an important research subject in mathematical statistics. In the paper, for a given data system along a straight line, two areas are considered, where the data of each area come from different discrete distributions, with unknown parameters. In the paper a method is presented for the estimation of the distribution change-point between both areas and an estimate is given for the distributions separated by the obtained change-point. The solution of this problem will be based on the maximum likelihood method. Furthermore, based on an adaptation of the well-known bootstrap resampling, a method for the estimation of the so-called change-interval is also given. The latter approach is very general, since it not only applies in the case of the maximum-likelihood estimation of the change-point, but it can be also used starting from any other change-point estimation known in the ecological literature. The proposed model is validated against typical ecological situations, providing at the same time a verification of the applied algorithms.