Zhiqiang Tan

1. Without randomization, causal inference in observational studies is challenging due to possible confounding. When all confounding is assumed to be attributed to measured covariates X, causal par...

Gradient-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods have recently received much attention for sampling discrete distributions, with notable examples such as Norm Constrained Gradient (NCG), Auxiliary Variable Gradient (AVG), and Discrete Hamiltonian Assisted Metropolis Sampling (DHAMS). In this work, we propose the Preconditioned Discrete-HAMS (PDHAMS) algorithm, which extends DHAMS by incorporating a second-order, quadratic approximation of the potential function, and uses Gaussian integral trick to avoid directly sampling a pairwise Markov random field. The PDHAMS sampler not only satisfies generalized detailed balance, hence enabling irreversible sampling, but also is a rejection-free property for a target distribution with a quadratic potential function. In various numerical experiments, PDHAMS algorithms consistently yield superior performance compared with other methods.

High-dimensional regression models with regularized sparse estimation are widely applied. For statistical inferences, debiased methods are available about single coefficients or predictions with sparse new covariate vectors (also called loadings), in the presence of possible model misspecification. However, statistical inferences about predictions with non-sparse loadings are studied only under the assumption of correctly specified models. In this work, we develop debiased estimation and associated Wald confidence intervals for predictions with general loadings, allowed to be non-sparse, from possibly misspecified high-dimensional regression models. Our debiased estimator involves estimation of a debiasing vector, which is the general loading left-multiplied by the non-centered precision matrix in the linear model (LM) setting or the inverse Hessian of the objective function at the target coefficient vector in the generalized linear model (GLM) setting. We propose suitable estimators of the precision matrix or the inverse Hessian respectively in the LM or GLM settings and, for the first time, establish a root-n asymptotic expansion for the debiased prediction and justify associated Wald confidence intervals under sparsity conditions on the precision matrix or the inverse Hessian which are comparable to the conjunction of sparsity conditions required for inferences about all single coefficients in existing works. We also provide numerical results which further demonstrate the validity of our proposed confidence intervals for predictions with general loadings from possibly misspecified regression models.

Gradient-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods have recently received much attention for sampling discrete distributions, with interesting connections to their continuous counterparts. For examples, there are two discrete analogues to the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin Algorithm (MALA). As motivated by Hamiltonian-Assisted Metropolis Sampling (HAMS), we propose Discrete HAMS (DHAMS), a discrete sampler which, for the first time, not only exploits gradient information but also incorporates a Gaussian momentum variable and samples a Hamiltonian as an augmented distribution. DHAMS is derived through several steps, including an auxiliary-variable proposal scheme, negation and gradient correction for the momentum variable, and over-relaxation for the state variable. Two distinctive properties are achieved simultaneously. One is generalized detailed balance, which enables irreversible exploration of the target distribution. The other is a rejection-free property for a target distribution with a linear potential function. In experiments involving both ordinal and binary distributions, DHAMS algorithms consistently yield superior performance compared with existing algorithms.

We consider sensitivity analysis for causal inference in a longitudinal study with time-varying treatments and covariates. It is of interest to assess the worst-case possible values of counterfactual outcome means and average treatment effects under sequential unmeasured confounding. We formulate several multi-period sensitivity models to relax the corresponding versions of the assumption of sequential non-confounding. The primary sensitivity model involves only counterfactual outcomes, whereas the joint and product sensitivity models involve both counterfactual covariates and outcomes. We establish and compare explicit representations for the sharp and conservative bounds at the population level through convex optimization, depending only on the observed data. These results provide for the first time a satisfactory generalization from the marginal sensitivity model in the cross-sectional setting.

Consider sensitivity analysis for estimating average treatment effects under unmeasured confounding, assumed to satisfy a marginal sensitivity model. At the population level, we provide new representations for the sharp population bounds and doubly robust estimating functions. We also derive new, relaxed population bounds, depending on weighted linear outcome quantile regression. At the sample level, we develop new methods and theory for obtaining not only doubly robust point estimators for the relaxed population bounds with respect to misspecification of a propensity score model or an outcome mean regression model, but also model-assisted confidence intervals which are valid if the propensity score model is correctly specified, but the outcome quantile and mean regression models may be misspecified. The relaxed population bounds reduce to the sharp bounds if outcome quantile regression is correctly specified. For a linear outcome mean regression model, the confidence intervals are also doubly robust. Our methods involve regularized calibrated estimation, with Lasso penalties but carefully chosen loss functions, for fitting propensity score and outcome mean and quantile regression models. We present a simulation study and an empirical application to an observational study on the effects of right-heart catheterization. The proposed method is implemented in the R package RCALsa.