Krijn P. Paaijmans

Chemical insecticides are crucial to malaria control and elimination programmes. The frontline vector control interventions depend mainly on pyrethroids; all long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and more than 80% of indoor residual spraying (IRS) campaigns use chemicals from this class. This extensive use of pyrethroids imposes a strong selection pressure for resistance in mosquito populations, and so continuous resistance monitoring and evaluation are important. As pyrethroids have also been used for many years in the Manhiça District, an area in southern Mozambique with perennial malaria transmission, an assessment of their efficacy against the local malaria vectors was conducted. Female offspring of wild-caught Anopheles funestus s.s. females were exposed to deltamethrin, lambda-cyhalothrin and permethrin using the World Health Organization (WHO) insecticide-resistance monitoring protocols. The 3-min WHO cone bioassay was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the bed nets distributed or available for purchase in the area (Olyset, permethrin LLIN; PermaNet 2.0, deltamethrin LLIN) against An. funestus. Mosquitoes were also exposed to PermaNet 2.0 for up to 8 h in time-exposure assays. Resistance to pyrethroids in An. funestus s.s. was extremely high, much higher than reported in 2002 and 2009. No exposure killed more than 25.8% of the mosquitoes tested (average mortality, deltamethrin: 6.4%; lambda-cyhalothrin: 5.1%; permethrin: 19.1%). There was no significant difference in the mortality generated by 3-min exposure to any net (Olyset: 9.3% mortality, PermaNet 2.0: 6.0%, untreated: 2.0%; p = 0.2). Six hours of exposure were required to kill 50% of the An. funestus s.s. on PermaNet 2.0. Anopheles funestus s.s. in Manhiça is extremely resistant to pyrethroids, and this area is clearly a pyrethroid-resistance hotspot. This could severely undermine vector control in this district if no appropriate countermeasures are undertaken. The National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) of Mozambique is currently improving its resistance monitoring programme, to design and scale up new management strategies. These actions are urgently needed, as the goal of the NMCP and its partners is to reach elimination in southern Mozambique by 2020.

Ectotherms are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate warming. Descriptions of habitat temperatures and predicted changes in climate usually consider mean monthly, seasonal or annual conditions. Ectotherms, however, do not simply experience mean conditions, but are exposed to daily fluctuations in habitat temperatures. Here, we highlight how temperature fluctuation can generate ‘realized’ thermal reaction (fitness) norms that differ from the ‘fundamental’ norms derived under standard constant temperatures. Using a mosquito as a model organism, we find that temperature fluctuation reduces rate processes such as development under warm conditions, increases processes under cool conditions, and reduces both the optimum and the critical maximum temperature. Generalizing these effects for a range of terrestrial insects reveals that prevailing daily fluctuations in temperature should alter the sensitivity of species to climate warming by reducing ‘thermal safety margins’. Such effects of daily temperature dynamics have generally been ignored in the climate change literature.

Background: Environmental temperature is an important driver of malaria transmission dynamics. Both the parasite and vector are sensitive to mean ambient temperatures and daily temperature variation. To understand transmission ecology, therefore, it is important to determine the range of microclimatic temperatures experienced by malaria vectors in the field.Methods: A pilot study was conducted in the Indian city of Chennai to determine the temperature variation in urban microclimates and characterize the thermal ecology of the local transmission setting. Temperatures were measured in a range of probable indoor and outdoor resting habitats ofAnopheles stephensiin two urban slum malaria sites. Mean temperatures and daily temperature fluctuations in local transmission sites were compared with standard temperature measures from the local weather station. The biological implications of the different temperatures were explored using temperature-dependent parasite development models to provide estimates of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) ofPlasmodium vivaxandPlasmodium falciparum.Results: Mean daily temperatures within the urban transmission sites were generally warmer than those recorded at the local weather station. The main reason was that night-time temperatures were higher (and hence diurnal temperature ranges smaller) in the urban settings. Mean temperatures and temperature variation also differed between specific resting sites within the transmission environments. Most differences were of the order of 1-3°C but were sufficient to lead to important variation in predicted EIPs and hence, variation in estimates of transmission intensity.Conclusions: Standard estimates of environmental temperature derived from local weather stations do not necessarily provide realistic measures of temperatures within actual transmission environments. Even the small differences in mean temperatures or diurnal temperature ranges reported in this study can lead to large variations in key mosquito and/or parasite life history traits that determine transmission intensity. Greater effort should be directed at quantifying adult mosquito resting behaviour and determining the temperatures actually experienced by mosquitoes and parasites in local transmission environments. In the absence of such highly resolved data, the approach used in the current study provides a framework for improved thermal characterization of transmission settings.

A mosquito needs to bite at least twice for malaria transmission to occur: once to acquire parasites and, after these parasites complete their development in their mosquito host, once to transmit the parasites to the next vertebrate host. Here we investigate the relationship between temperature, parasite development, and biting frequency in a mosquito-rodent malaria model system. We show that the pre-bloodmeal period (the time lag between mosquito emergence and first bloodmeal) increases at lower temperatures. In addition, parasite development time and feeding exhibit different thermal sensitivities such that mosquitoes might not be ready to feed at the point at which the parasite is ready to be transmitted. Exploring these effects using a simple theoretical model of human malaria shows that delays in infection and transmission can reduce the vectorial capacity of malaria mosquitoes by 20 to over 60%, depending on temperature. These delays have important implications for disease epidemiology and control, and should be considered in future transmission models.

Most biological process-based models that approximate temperature to estimate the various mosquito and parasite life history variables that influence disease transmission intensity. However, mosquitoes, and parasites within them, do not experience ‘average temperatures’, but are exposed to temperatures that can fluctuate considerably throughout the day. In addition, endophilic mosquitoes will be exposed to indoor temperatures and not directly to outdoor air temperature. Further, mosquito larvae live in aquatic habitats and so again, are not exposed directly to outdoor air temperatures. In this chapter we highlight how these different temperatures can all change malaria risk predictions. To understand malaria dynamics, inform operational control objectives and predict consequences of climate change, we need a better mechanistic understanding of vector-parasite interactions, with improved integration of the biological and environmental parameters at a scale relevant to conditions actually experienced by both mosquitoes and malaria parasites.

The development rate of parasites and pathogens within vectors typically increases with temperature. Accordingly, transmission intensity is generally assumed to be higher under warmer conditions. However, development is only one component of parasite/pathogen life history and there has been little research exploring the temperature sensitivity of other traits that contribute to transmission intensity. Here, using a rodent malaria, we show that vector competence (the maximum proportion of infectious mosquitoes, which implicitly includes parasite survival across the incubation period) tails off at higher temperatures, even though parasite development rate increases. We also show that the standard measure of the parasite incubation period (i.e. time until the first mosquitoes within a cohort become infectious following an infected blood-meal) is incomplete because parasite development follows a cumulative distribution, which itself varies with temperature. Including these effects in a simple model dramatically alters estimates of transmission intensity and reduces the optimum temperature for transmission. These results highlight the need to understand the interactive effects of environmental temperature on multiple host-disease life-history traits and challenge the assumptions of many current disease models that ignore this complexity.

The majority of the mosquito and parasite life-history traits that combine to determine malaria transmission intensity are temperature sensitive. In most cases, the process-based models used to estimate malaria risk and inform control and prevention strategies utilize measures of mean outdoor temperature. Evidence suggests, however, that certain malaria vectors can spend large parts of their adult life resting indoors.

As the ecology of mosquito larvae can be complex there is need to develop a rational framework for undertaking larval ecological studies. Local environmental characteristics, such as altitude, climate and land use, can significantly impact on phenology and population dynamics of mosquito larvae, and indirectly affect the dynamics of mosquito-borne diseases. The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility of implementing an integrated approach to larval source management under the distinct ecological settings.

The relationship between mosquito development and temperature is one of the keys to understanding the current and future dynamics and distribution of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Many process-based models use mean air temperature to estimate larval development times, and hence adult vector densities and/or malaria risk.