Roland Gosling

The global malaria burden has fallen since 2000, sometimes before large-scale vector control programmes were initiated. While long-lasting insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying are highly effective interventions, this study tests the hypothesis that improved housing can reduce malaria by decreasing house entry by malaria mosquitoes. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to assess whether modern housing is associated with a lower risk of malaria than traditional housing, across all age groups and malaria-endemic settings. Six electronic databases were searched to identify intervention and observational studies published from 1 January, 1900 to 13 December, 2013, measuring the association between house design and malaria. The primary outcome measures were parasite prevalence and incidence of clinical malaria. Crude and adjusted effects were combined in fixed- and random-effects meta-analyses, with sub-group analyses for: overall house type (traditional versus modern housing); screening; main wall, roof and floor materials; eave type; ceilings and elevation. Of 15,526 studies screened, 90 were included in a qualitative synthesis and 53 reported epidemiological outcomes, included in a meta-analysis. Of these, 39 (74 %) showed trends towards a lower risk of epidemiological outcomes associated with improved house features. Of studies assessing the relationship between modern housing and malaria infection (n = 11) and clinical malaria (n = 5), all were observational, with very low to low quality evidence. Residents of modern houses had 47 % lower odds of malaria infection compared to traditional houses (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0°53, 95 % confidence intervals (CI) 0°42–0°67, p < 0°001, five studies) and a 45–65 % lower odds of clinical malaria (case–control studies: adjusted OR 0°35, 95 % CI 0°20–0°62, p <0°001, one study; cohort studies: adjusted rate ratio 0°55, 95 % CI 0°36–0°84, p = 0°005, three studies). Evidence of a high risk of bias was found within studies. Despite low quality evidence, the direction and consistency of effects indicate that housing is an important risk factor for malaria. Future research should evaluate the protective effect of specific house features and incremental housing improvements associated with socio-economic development.

Indirect clinical measures assessing anti-malarial drug transmission-blocking activity in falciparum malaria include measurement of the duration of gametocytaemia, the rate of gametocyte clearance or the area under the gametocytaemia-time curve (AUC). These may provide useful comparative information, but they underestimate dose-response relationships for transmission-blocking activity. Following 8-aminoquinoline administration P. falciparum gametocytes are sterilized within hours, whereas clearance from blood takes days. Gametocytaemia AUC and clearance times are determined predominantly by the more numerous female gametocytes, which are generally less drug sensitive than the minority male gametocytes, whereas transmission-blocking activity and thus infectivity is determined by the more sensitive male forms. In choosing doses of transmission-blocking drugs there is no substitute yet for mosquito-feeding studies.

As malaria transmission declines, continued improvements of prevention and control interventions will increasingly rely on accurate knowledge of risk factors and an ability to define high-risk areas and populations at risk for focal targeting of interventions. This paper explores the independent association between living in a hotspot and prospective risk of malaria infection. Malaria infection status defined by nPCR and AMA-1 status in year 1 were used to define geographic hotspots using two geospatial statistical methods (SaTScan and Kernel density smoothing). Other malaria risk factors for malaria infection were explored by fitting a multivariable model. This study demonstrated that residing in infection hotspot of malaria transmission is an independent predictor of malaria infection in the future. It is likely that targeting such hotspots with better coverage and improved malaria control strategies will result in more cost-efficient uses of resources to move towards malaria elimination.

Artemisinin-based combinations are currently the most effective anti-malarials and, in addition to vector control, have led to significant declines in malaria morbidity and mortality. However, foci of artemisinin drug resistance have been identified in the Greater Mekong subregion (GMS) of the Asia Pacific, threatening the major gains made in malaria control and potentially creating a parasite pool that is more difficult to treat and eliminate. Efforts are underway to halt the spread of artemisinin resistance, including coordination of activities and funding, and identification of areas of suspected artemisinin resistance, now using a newly identified molecular marker. However, targeting resources to the containment of resistant parasites is likely inefficient and monitoring impact is challenging. A more sustainable solution is the rapid elimination of all Plasmodium falciparum parasites from the GMS. This strategy is more efficient for several reasons. First, a subregional strategy is in line with current commitment to elimination and will build upon the existing national political support for elimination as well as enhancing collaboration among countries. Second, the challenge of human mobility in the GMS is subregional in scope and requires a harmonized elimination strategy. Third, countries will need to improve and intensify malaria operations to reach elimination, and this will be a singular goal across the subregion. Rallying around the goal of P. falciparum elimination will not only utilize existing regional bodies to catalyze political and funding support, but will also leverage the funding already in place to achieve this subregional goal.

Within affected communities, Plasmodium falciparum infections may be skewed in distribution such that single or small clusters of households consistently harbour a disproportionate number of infected individuals throughout the year. Identifying these hotspots of malaria transmission would permit targeting of interventions and a more rapid reduction in malaria burden across the whole community. This study set out to compare different statistical methods of hotspot detection (SaTScan, kernel smoothing, weighted local prevalence) using different indicators (PCR positivity, AMA-1 and MSP-1 antibodies) for prediction of infection the following year. Two full surveys of four villages in Mwanza, Tanzania were completed over consecutive years, 2010-2011. In both surveys, infection was assessed using nested polymerase chain reaction (nPCR). In addition in 2010, serologic markers (AMA-1 and MSP-1₁₉ antibodies) of exposure were assessed. Baseline clustering of infection and serological markers were assessed using three geospatial methods: spatial scan statistics, kernel analysis and weighted local prevalence analysis. Methods were compared in their ability to predict infection in the second year of the study using random effects logistic regression models, and comparisons of the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for each model. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the effect of varying radius size for the kernel and weighted local prevalence methods and maximum population size for the spatial scan statistic. Guided by AUC values, the kernel method and spatial scan statistics appeared to be more predictive of infection in the following year. Hotspots of PCR-detected infection and seropositivity to AMA-1 were predictive of subsequent infection. For the kernel method, a 1 km window was optimal. Similarly, allowing hotspots to contain up to 50% of the population was a better predictor of infection in the second year using spatial scan statistics than smaller maximum population sizes. Clusters of AMA-1 seroprevalence or parasite prevalence that are predictive of infection a year later can be identified using geospatial models. Kernel smoothing using a 1 km window and spatial scan statistics both provided accurate prediction of future infection.

Mass drug administration (MDA) is a strategy widely used in the control of human parasitic diseases but has been rarely attempted with malaria, the most common and dangerous parasitic disease in humans. MDA is an intervention strategy that involves simultaneously dispensing treatment to an entire population in a given geographic area. With some areas in sub-Saharan Africa documenting a decline in malaria transmission, the feasibility of MDA to further reduce malaria transmission is being considered. Understanding community perceptions of such an activity is vitally important for the design of the study and gaining the support of participants in order to maximize compliance and adherence.

While great success in malaria control has been achieved in China, imported malaria has become a major challenge in the context of malaria elimination. This retrospective study describes the epidemiological profile of imported malaria and identifies the at-risk population during the period of 2001–2011 in Jiangsu Province. Data on imported malaria cases in Jiangsu Province from 2001 to 2011 were collected from the infectious disease surveillance system and case investigation reports. Epidemiological trends were described and correlations between trends in exported labour and malaria imported from other countries were explored. From 2001 to 2011, 918 malaria cases and six malaria deaths were due to malaria imported from other countries, accounting for 12.4% of all malaria cases and 100% of all malaria deaths. During this time period the annual number of indigenous cases decreased from 1,163 to 13 while the number of imported cases increased from 86 to 366. The relative proportion of cases imported from other countries versus other provinces also increased from 0.0% (0/86) to 97.0% (350/361). The most affected demographic groups were males (897 cases, 97.7%) and adults (20–50 years old: 857 cases, 93.4%). All 918 cases had a recent travel history to malaria-endemic areas and the main purpose for travel was overseas labour (848 cases, 92.4%). The cases were mainly acquired from African countries (855 cases, 93.1%). Plasmodium falciparum was the most common species (733 cases, 79.8%). The increase in malaria cases imported from other countries was associated with the growth of investment to Africa from Jiangsu (R² = 0.8057) and the increasing number of exported labourers to Africa from Jiangsu (R² = 0.8863). From 2001 to 2011 in Jiangsu Province, there was a consistent increase in the number of malaria cases imported from other countries while the number of locally acquired cases sharply declined. This trend may be ascribed to the increasing investment from China to Africa and the rising number of Chinese labourers working in Africa. Preventative efforts should be targeted to this high-risk group and the surveillance and response system should be strengthened to prevent local resurgence in Jiangsu.

Countries in the Asia Pacific region have made great progress in the fight against malaria; several are rapidly approaching elimination. However, malaria control programmes operating in elimination settings face substantial challenges, particularly around mobile migrant populations, access to remote areas and the diversity of vectors with varying biting and breeding behaviours. These challenges can be addressed through subnational collaborations with commercial partners, such as mining or plantation companies, that can conduct or support malaria control activities to cover employees. Such partnerships can be a useful tool for accessing high-risk populations and supporting malaria elimination goals.

In a linked Perspective, Roly Gosling and Michelle Hsiang discuss the importance of non-falciparum malaria species to regional and global health.

Recent progress in malaria control has caused renewed interest in mass drug administration (MDA) as a potential elimination strategy but the evidence base is limited. China has extensive experience with MDA, but it is not well documented. An ecological study was conducted to describe the use of MDA for the control and elimination of Plasmodium vivax in Jiangsu Province and explore the association between MDA and malaria incidence. Two periods were focused on: 1973 to 1983 when malaria burden was high and MDA administered to highly endemic counties province-wide, and 2000 to 2009, when malaria burden was low and a focal approach was used in two counties. All available data about the strategies implemented, MDA coverage, co-interventions, incidence, and adverse events were collected and described. Joinpoint analysis was used to describe trends in incidence and the relationship between MDA coverage and incidence was explored in negative binomial regression models. From 1973 to 1983, MDA with pyrimethamine and primaquine was used on a large scale, with up to 30 million people in target counties covered in a peak year (50% of the total population). Joinpoint analyses identified declines in annual incidence, -56.7% (95% CI -75.5 to -23.7%) from 1973–1976 and -12.4% (95% CI -24.7 to 2.0%) from 1976–1983. Population average negative binomial models identified a relationship between higher total population MDA coverage and lower monthly incidence from 1973–1976, IRR 0.98 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.00), while co-interventions, rainfall and GDP were not associated. From 2000–2009, incidence in two counties declined (annual change -43.7 to -14.0%) during a time when focal MDA using chloroquine and primaquine was targeted to villages and/or individuals residing near passively detected index cases (median 0.04% of total population). Although safety data were not collected systematically, there were rare reports of serious but non-fatal events. In Jiangsu Province, China, large-scale MDA was implemented and associated with declines in high P. vivax malaria transmission; a more recent focal approach may have contributed to interruption of transmission. MDA should be considered a potential key strategy for malaria control and elimination.