Sean Helfrich

Floods, one of the costliest, and most frequent hazards, are expected to worsen in the U.S. due to climate change. The real-time forecasting of flood inundations is extremely important for proactive decision-making to reduce damage. However, traditional forecasting methods face challenges in terms of implementation and scalability due to computational burdens and data availability issues. Current forecasting services in the U.S. largely rely on hydrodynamic modeling, limited to river reaches near in situ gauges and requiring extensive data for model setup and calibration. Here, we have successfully adapted the Forecasting Inundation Extents using REOF (FIER) analysis framework to produce forecasted water fraction maps in two U.S. flood-prone regions, specifically the Red River of the North Basin and the Upper Mississippi Alluvial Plain, utilizing Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) optical imagery and the National Water Model. Comparing against historical VIIRS imagery for the same dates, FIER 1- to 8-day medium-range pseudo-forecasts show that about 70–80% of pixels exhibit absolute errors of less than 30%. Although originally developed utilizing Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images, this study demonstrated FIER’s versatility and effectiveness in flood forecasting by demonstrating its successful adaptation with optical VIIRS imagery which provides daily water fraction product, offering more historical observations to be used as inputs for FIER during peak flood times, particularly in regions where flooding commonly happens in a short period rather than following a broad seasonal pattern.

Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) and Advanced Baseline Imager (GOES-R ABI) flood products have been widely used by the National Weather Service (NWS) for river flood monitoring, and by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for rescue and relief efforts. Some water bodies, like wetlands, are detected as water but not marked as permanent or normal water, which may result in their misclassification as floodwaters by VIIRS and GOES-R flood products. These water bodies generally do not cause significant property damage or fatalities, but they can complicate the identification of truly hazardous floods. This study utilizes the severe Louisiana flood event caused by Hurricane Ida to demonstrate how to differentiate wetlands from real-hazard flooding. Since Hurricane Ida made landfall in 2021, and there was no major flood event in 2022, VIIRS and ABI flood data from 2021 and 2022 were selected. The difference in annual total flooding days between 2021 and 2022 was calculated and combined with long-time flood frequency to distinguish non-hazard floodwaters due to wetlands identified from real-hazard floods caused by the hurricane. The results were compared with the wetlands from the change detection analysis. The confusion matrix analysis indicated an accuracy of 91.58%, precision of 89.97%, and F1-score of 76.63% for the VIIRS flood products. For the GOES-R ABI flood products, the confusion matrix analysis yielded an accuracy of 86.88%, precision of 97.49%, and F1-score of 75.21%. The accuracy and F1-score values for the GOES-R ABI flood products are slightly lower than those for the VIIRS flood products, possibly due to their lower spatial resolution, but still within a feasible range.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) facilitates and enables societal benefits from satellite oceanography, supporting operational and experimental satellite missions, developing new and improved ocean observing capabilities, engaging users by developing and distributing fit-for-purpose data, applications, tools, and services, and curating, translating, and integrating diverse data products into information that supports informed decision making. STAR research, development, and application efforts span from passive visible, infrared, and microwave observations to active altimetry, scatterometry, and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations. These efforts directly support NOAA’s operational geostationary (GEO) and low Earth orbit (LEO) missions with calibration/validation and retrieval algorithm development, implementation, maintenance, and anomaly resolution, as well as leverage the broader international constellation of environmental satellites for NOAA’s benefit. STAR’s satellite data products and services enable research, assessments, applications, and, ultimately, decision making for understanding, predicting, managing, and protecting ocean and coastal resources, as well as assessing impacts of change on the environment, ecosystems, and climate. STAR leads the NOAA Coral Reef Watch and CoastWatch/OceanWatch/PolarWatch Programs, helping people access and utilize global and regional satellite data for ocean, coastal, and ecosystem applications.

Floods are often associated with hurricanes making landfall. When tropical cyclones/hurricanes make landfall, they are usually accompanied by heavy rainfall and storm surges that inundate coastal areas. The worst natural disaster in the United States, in terms of loss of life and property damage, was caused by hurricane storm surges and their associated coastal flooding. To monitor coastal flooding in the areas affected by hurricanes, we used data from sensors aboard the operational Polar-orbiting and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites. This study aims to apply a downscaling model to recent severe coastal flooding events caused by hurricanes. To demonstrate how high-resolution 3D flood mapping can be made from moderate-resolution operational satellite observations, the downscaling model was applied to the catastrophic coastal flooding in Florida due to Hurricane Ian and in New Orleans due to Hurricanes Ida and Laura. The floodwater fraction data derived from the SNPP/NOAA-20 VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) observations at the original 375 m resolution were input into the downscaling model to obtain 3D flooding information at 30 m resolution, including flooding extent, water surface level and water depth. Compared to a 2D flood extent map at the VIIRS’ original 375 m resolution, the downscaled 30 m floodwater depth maps, even when shown as 2D images, can provide more details about floodwater distribution, while 3D visualizations can demonstrate floodwater depth more clearly in relative to the terrain and provide a more direct perception of the inundation situations caused by hurricanes. The use of 3D visualization can help users clearly see floodwaters occurring over various types of terrain conditions, thus identifying a hazardous flood from non-hazardous flood types. Furthermore, 3D maps displaying floodwater depth may provide additional information for rescue efforts and damage assessments. The downscaling model can help enhance the capabilities of moderate-to-coarse resolution sensors, such as those used in operational weather satellites, flood detection and monitoring.

This work assesses the AMSR2 (the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2) ice extent and ice edge in the Arctic using the ice extent products of NOAA’s Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) from the period of July 2015 to July 2019. Daily values and monthly means of four statistical scores (hit rate, false alarm ratio, false alarm rate, and Hanssen-Kuiper Skill Score) over the Arctic Ocean show distinct annual cycles. IMS ice edges often extend further south compared to those from AMSR2, with up to 100 km differences over the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian Seas in August and September.

In this study, daily maps of snow cover distribution and sea ice extent produced by NOAA’s interactive multisensor snow and ice mapping system (IMS) were validated using in situ snow depth data from observing stations obtained from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for calendar years 2006 to 2010. IMS provides daily maps of snow and sea ice extent within the Northern Hemisphere using data from combination of geostationary and polar orbiting satellites in visible, infrared and microwave spectrums. Statistical correspondence between the IMS and in situ point measurements has been evaluated assuming that ground measurements are discrete and continuously distributed over a 4 km IMS snow cover maps. Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) land and snow classification data are supplemental datasets used in the further analysis of correspondence between the IMS product and in situ measurements. The comparison of IMS maps with in situ snow observations conducted over a period of four years has demonstrated a good correspondence of the data sets. The daily rate of agreement between the products mostly ranges between 80% and 90% during the Northern Hemisphere through the winter seasons when about a quarter to one third of the territory of continental US is covered with snow. Further, better agreement was observed for stations recording higher snow depth. The uncertainties in validation of IMS snow product with stationed NCDC data were discussed.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NOAA/NESDIS) Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) has undergone substantial changes since its inception in 1997. These changes include the data sources used to generate the product, methodology of product creation, and even changes in the output. Among the most notable of the past upgrades to the IMS are a 4‐km resolution grid output, ingest of an automated snow detection algorithm, expansion to a global extent, and a static Digital Elevation Model for mapping based on elevation. Further developments to this dynamic system will continue as NOAA strives to improve snow parameterization for weather forecast modeling. Several future short‐term enhancements will be evaluated for possible transition to operations before the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2006–2007. Current and historical data will be adopted to a geographic information systems (GIS) format before 2007, as well. Longer‐term enhancements are also planned to account for new snow data sources, mapping methodologies and user requirements. These modifications are being made with care to preserve the integrity of the long‐standing satellite‐derived snow record that is vital to global change detection. Published in 2007 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.