Boriss Siliverstovs

This article suggests a novel approach to pre-selection of the component series of the diffusion index based on their individual forecasting performance. It is shown that this targeted selection allows substantially improving the forecasting ability compared to the diffusion index models that are based on the largest available data set.

This study compares two alternative approaches–the traditional ordinary least square (OLS) and the Poisson Quasi Maximum Likelihood (PQML) procedures–to estimation of the home market effects for the heterogeneous, the reference priced and the homogeneous goods in the gravity model derived in Feenstra et al. ( 2001 Feenstra, RC , Markusen, JA and Rose, AK . 2001. Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade. Canadian Journal of Economics, 34: 430–42. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar] ). Despite our findings that the PQML estimation results oftentimes (significantly) differ from those obtained by the OLS procedure, both estimation procedures largely lead to the qualitatively similar conclusions on the existence of the home market effect for the different types of goods with several exceptions.

This study examines the export-led growth hypothesis using annual time series data from Chile in a production function framework. It addresses the problem of specification bias under which previous studies have suffered, and focuses on the impact of manufactured and mining exports on productivity growth. In order to investigate if and how manufactured and mining exports affect economic growth via increases in productivity, the study uses Johansen cointegration technique. The estimation results can be interpreted as evidence of productivity-enhancing effects of manufactured exports and of productivity-limiting effects of mining exports.

Summary: In this paper we perform a comparative study of the forecasting properties of the about 30 alternative leading indicators for Germany using the growth rates of German real GDP. In addition to them, we have constructed a diffusion index based on the principal component analysis and including 145 component series that reflect all the facets of German economy. We use the post-unification data which cover years from 1991 through 2004. Using a battery of statistical tests we detect a structural break in the growth rates that occurs in the first half of 2001. Our results suggest that the forecasting ability of the leading indicators has been rather good in the pre-break period with our diffusion index showing the superior forecasting accuracy but the forecasting performance of all alternative indicators has significantly deteriorated in the post-break period, i.e. in 2001-2004. None of the leading indicator models was able to predict and accommodate the structural break in the growth rates of the time series under scrutiny. This finding confirms the widespread impression among the practitioners that the state of German economy in the recent years became much more difficult to forecast.

The present study tests for the existence of multicointegration between real per capita private consumption expenditure and real per capita disposable personal income in the USA. In doing so, the study exploits the fact that the flows of disposable income and consumption expenditure on the one hand, and the stock of consumers' wealth, which can be considered as cumulative past discrepancies between the flows of income and expenditure, on the other hand, can be thought of as a stock-flow model, in which multicointegration is likely to occur. Recently developed I(2) techniques are applied for testing for multicointegrating relations and find supporting evidence for the existence of multicointegration in US consumption data.

This study examines the export-led growth hypothesis using annual time series data from Chile. It addresses the problem of specification bias under which previous studies have suffered and focuses on the impact of manufactured and primary exports on the economic growth. In order to investigate if and how manufactured and primary exports affect economic growth via increases in productivity, the study uses the Toda and Yamamoto ( 1995 Toda, HY and Yamamoto, T . 1995. Statistical inference in vector autoregressions wich possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66: 225–50. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar] ) procedure for testing for Granger non-causality in Vector Autoregressive models that involve variables that are integrated in an arbitrary order and that are possibly cointegrated. The estimation results support the export-led growth hypothesis for Chile and at the same time point out to the differentiated impact of manufactured and primary exports on the economic growth.