Ralph Timmermann

The transport of water masses with ocean circulation is a key component of the global climate system. In this context, the Filchner Trough in the southern Weddell Sea is critical, as it is a hotspot for the cross-shelf-break exchange of Dense Shelf Water and Warm Deep Water. We present results from Lagrangian particle tracking experiments in a global-ocean–sea-ice model (FESOM-1.4) which includes ice-shelf cavities and has eddy-permitting resolution on the southern Weddell Sea continental shelf. With backward and forward experiments, we assess changes between a present-day and a future (SSP5-8.5) time slice in the origin of waters reaching the Filchner Ice Shelf front and the fate of waters leaving it. We show that particles reaching the ice-shelf front from the open ocean originate from 173 % greater depths by 2100 (median; 776 m as compared to 284 m for the present day), while waters leaving the cavity towards the open ocean end up at 35 % shallower depths (550 m as compared to 850 m for the present day). Pathways of water leaving the continental shelf increasingly occur in the upper ocean, while the on-shelf flow of waters that might reach the ice-shelf cavity, i.e., at deeper layers, becomes more important by 2100. Simultaneously, median transit times between the Filchner Ice Shelf front and the continental shelf break decrease (increase) by 6 (9.5) months in the backward (forward) experiments. In conclusion, our study demonstrates the sensitivity of regional circulation patterns in the southern Weddell Sea to ongoing climate change, with direct implications for ice-shelf basal melt rates and local ecosystems.

To study Antarctica’s contribution to ongoing and future sea level rise, a coupled ice sheet – ice shelf – ocean model with an explicit representation of ice shelf cavities has been developed. The coupled model is based on a global implementation of the Finite Element Sea ice Ocean Model (FESOM) with a mesh that is substantially refined in the marginal seas of the Southern Ocean. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is represented by a regional setup of the Parallel Ice Sheet Model PISM, comprising the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) and the grounded ice in its catchment area up to the ice divides.  At the base of the FRIS, melt rates and ocean temperatures from FESOM are applied. PISM returns ice thickness and the position of the grounding line. Buildung on infrastructure developed for the Regional Antarctic and Global Ocean (RAnGO) model, we use a pre-computed FESOM mesh that is adopted to the varying cavity geometry in each coupling step, i.e. currently once per model year. Changes in water column thickness are easily accounted for by the terrain-following vertical coordinate system in the ice shelf cavity. The ice sheet model is run on a horizontal grid with 1 km resolution to ensure an appropriate representation of grounding line processes. Enhancement factors for the approximation of the stress balance, as often used in coarse-resolution ice sheet models, become obsolete at such high resolution. Ice stream flow is well captured by polythermal coupling of the ice flow and a Mohr-Coulomb yield stress criterion that accounts for properties of the till material and the effective pressure on the saturated till. We present results from model runs with a 20th-century climate forcing and projections until the end of the 22nd century. We will show that cavity hydrography, ice shelf basal melt rates and thickness evolution as well as the feedback on grounded ice  in the coupled model simulations are very sensitive to the atmospheric forcing scenario applied.  

An increasing number of Southern Ocean models now include Antarctic ice shelf cavities, and simulate thermodynamics at the ice-shelf/ocean interface. This adds another level of complexity to Southern Ocean simulations, as ice shelves interact directly with the ocean and indirectly with sea ice. Here we present the first published model intercomparison and evaluation of present-day ocean/sea-ice/ice-shelf interactions, as simulated by two models: a circumpolar Antarctic configuration of MetROMS (ROMS: Regional Ocean Modelling System coupled to CICE: Community Ice CodE) and the global model FESOM (Finite Element Sea-ice/ice-shelf Ocean Model), where the latter is run at two different levels of horizontal resolution. From a circumpolar Antarctic perspective, we compare and evaluate simulated ice shelf basal melting and sub-ice shelf circulation, as well as sea ice properties and Southern Ocean water mass characteristics as they influence the sub-ice shelf processes. Despite their differing numerical methods, the two models produce broadly similar results, and share similar biases in many cases. Both models reproduce many key features of observations, but struggle to reproduce others, such as the high melt rates observed in the small warm-cavity ice shelves of the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas. Several differences in model design show a particular influence on the simulations. For example, FESOM's greater topographic smoothing can alter the geometry of some ice shelf cavities enough to affect their melt rates; this improves at higher resolution, since less smoothing is required. In the interior Southern Ocean, the vertical coordinate system affects the degree of water mass erosion due to spurious diapycnal mixing, with MetROMS' terrain-following coordinates leading to more erosion than FESOM's z-coordinates. Finally, increased horizontal resolution in FESOM leads to higher basal melt rates for small ice shelves, through a combination of stronger circulation and small-scale intrusions of warm water from offshore.

The Regional Antarctic ice and Global Ocean (RAnGO) model has been developed to study the interaction between the world ocean and the Antarctic ice sheet. The coupled model is based on a global implementation of the Finite Element Sea-ice Ocean Model (FESOM) with a mesh refinement in the Southern Ocean, particularly in its marginal seas and in the sub-ice-shelf cavities. The cryosphere is represented by a regional setup of the ice flow model RIMBAY comprising the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf and the grounded ice in its catchment area up to the ice divides. At the base of the RIMBAY ice shelf, melt rates from FESOM's ice-shelf component are supplied. RIMBAY returns ice thickness and the position of the grounding line. The ocean model uses a pre-computed mesh to allow for an easy adjustment of the model domain to a varying cavity geometry. RAnGO simulations with a 20th-century climate forcing yield realistic basal melt rates and a quasi-stable grounding line position close to the presently observed state. In a centennial-scale warm-water-inflow scenario, the model suggests a substantial thinning of the ice shelf and a local retreat of the grounding line. The potentially negative feedback from ice-shelf thinning through a rising in situ freezing temperature is more than outweighed by the increasing water column thickness in the deepest parts of the cavity. Compared to a control simulation with fixed ice-shelf geometry, the coupled model thus yields a slightly stronger increase in ice-shelf basal melt rates.

A Regional Antarctic and Global Ocean (RAnGO) model has been developed to study the interaction between the world ocean and the Antarctic ice sheet. The coupled model is based on a global implementation of the Finite Element Sea-ice Ocean Model (FESOM) with a mesh refinement in the Southern Ocean, particularly in its marginal seas and in the sub-ice shelf cavities. The cryosphere is represented by a regional setup of the ice flow model RIMBAY comprising the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf and the grounded ice in its catchment area up to the ice divides. At the base of the RIMBAY ice shelf, melt rates from FESOM's ice-shelf component are supplied. RIMBAY returns ice thickness and the position of the grounding line. The ocean model uses a pre-computed mesh to allow for an easy adjustment of the model domain to a varying cavity geometry. RAnGO simulations with a 20th-century climate forcing yield realistic basal melt rates and a quasi-stable grounding line position close to the presently observed state. In a centennial-scale warm-water-inflow scenario, the model suggests a substantial thinning of the ice shelf and a local retreat of the grounding line. The potentially negative feedback from ice-shelf thinning through a rising in-situ freezing temperature is more than outweighed by the increasing water column thickness in the deepest parts of the cavity. Compared to a control simulation with fixed ice-shelf geometry, the coupled model thus yields a slightly stronger increase of ice-shelf basal melt rates.

The Finite Element Sea-ice Ocean Model (FESOM) has been augmented by an ice-shelf component with a three-equation system for diagnostic computation of boundary layer temperature and salinity. Ice-shelf geometry and global ocean bathymetry have been derived from the RTopo-1 dataset. A global domain with a triangular mesh and a hybrid vertical coordinate is used. To evaluate sub-ice-shelf circulation and melt rates for present-day climate, the model is forced with NCEP reanalysis data. Basal mass fluxes are mostly realistic, with maximum melt rates in the deepest parts near the grounding lines and marine ice formation in the northern sectors of the Ross and Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelves, Antarctica. Total basal mass loss for the ten largest ice shelves reflects the importance of the Amundsen Sea ice shelves; the Getz Ice Shelf is shown to be a major meltwater contributor to the Southern Ocean. Despite their modest melt rates, the ‘cold water’ ice shelves in the Weddell Sea are still substantial sinks of continental ice in Antarctica. Discrepancies between the model and observations can partly be attributed to deficiencies in the forcing data or to (sometimes unavoidable) smoothing of ice-shelf and bottom topographies.

Sub-ice shelf circulation and freezing/melting rates in ocean general circulation models depend critically on an accurate and consistent representation of cavity geometry. Existing global or pan-Antarctic topography data sets have turned out to contain various inconsistencies and inaccuracies. The goal of this work is to compile independent regional surveys and maps into a global data set. We use the S-2004 global 1-min bathymetry as the backbone and add an improved version of the BEDMAP topography (ALBMAP bedrock topography) for an area that roughly coincides with the Antarctic continental shelf. The position of the merging line is individually chosen in different sectors in order to capture the best of both data sets. High-resolution gridded data for ice shelf topography and cavity geometry of the Amery, Fimbul, Filchner-Ronne, Larsen C and George VI Ice Shelves, and for Pine Island Glacier are carefully merged into the ambient ice and ocean topographies. Multibeam survey data for bathymetry in the former Larsen B cavity and the southeastern Bellingshausen Sea have been obtained from the data centers of Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI), British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), gridded, and blended into the existing bathymetry map. The resulting global 1-min Refined Topography data set (RTopo-1) contains self-consistent maps for upper and lower ice surface heights, bedrock topography, and surface type (open ocean, grounded ice, floating ice, bare land surface). The data set is available in NetCDF format from the PANGAEA database at doi:10.1594/pangaea.741917.

Sub-ice shelf circulation and freezing/melting rates in ocean general circulation models depend critically on an accurate and consistent representation of cavity geometry. Existing global or pan-Antarctic data sets have turned out to contain various inconsistencies and inaccuracies. The goal of this work is to compile independent regional fields into a global data set. We use the S-2004 global 1-min bathymetry as the backbone and add an improved version of the BEDMAP topography (ALBMAP bedrock topography) for an area that roughly coincides with the Antarctic continental shelf. The position of the merging line is individually chosen in different sectors in order to get the best out of each data set. High-resolution gridded data for ice shelf topography and cavity geometry of the Amery, Fimbul, Filchner-Ronne, Larsen C and George VI Ice Shelves, and for Pine Island Glacier are carefully merged into the ambient ice and ocean topographies. Multibeam survey data for bathymetry in the former Larsen B cavity and the southeastern Bellingshausen Sea have been obtained from the data centers of Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI), British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), gridded, and blended into the existing bathymetry map. The resulting global 1-min topography data set (RTopo-1) contains maps for upper and lower ice surface heights, bedrock topography, and consistent masks for open ocean, grounded ice, floating ice, and bare land surface. The data set is available in NetCDF format from the PANGAEA database at doi:10.1594/pangaea.741917.