Joel D. McMillin

Landscape-level bark beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) outbreaks occurred in Arizona ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Law.) forests from 2001 to 2003 in response to severe drought and suitable forest conditions. We quantified surface fuel loadings and depths, and calculated canopy fuels based on forest structure attributes in 60 plots established 5 years previously on five national forests. Half of the plots we sampled in 2007 had bark beetle-caused pine mortality and half did not have mortality. Adjusting for differences in pre-outbreak stand density, plots with mortality had higher surface fuel and lower canopy fuel loadings 5 years after the outbreak compared with plots without mortality. Total surface fuels averaged 2.5 times higher and calculated canopy fuels 2 times lower in plots with mortality. Nearly half of the trees killed in the bark beetle outbreak had fallen within 5 years, resulting in loadings of 1000-h woody fuels above recommended ranges for dry coniferous forests in 20% of the mortality plots. We expect 1000-h fuel loadings in other mortality plots to exceed recommended ranges as remaining snags fall to the ground. This study adds to previous work that documents the highly variable and complex effects of bark beetle outbreaks on fuel complexes.

Previous research has shown that crown scorch volume and crown consumption volume are the major predictors of post-fire mortality in ponderosa pine. In this study, we use piecewise logistic regression models of crown scorch data from 6633 trees in five wildfires from the Intermountain West to locate a mortality threshold at 88% scorch by volume for trees with no crown consumption. For trees with >40% crown consumption volume, linear regression indicates >85% mortality, but for trees with crown consumption volume 85%), crown consumption volume (>40%), and crown consumption between 5 and 40% combined with crown scorch volume >50% mortality thresholds could be incorporated into post-fire marking guidelines for forest management goals.