Christopher Kennedy

As drivers of climate action, cities are taking measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which if left unabated pose a challenge to meeting long-term climate targets. The economics of climate action needs to be at the forefront of climate dialogue to prioritize investments among competing mitigation measures. A marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve is an effective visualization of climate action that initiates a technical and economic discussion of the cost-effectiveness and abatement potential of such actions among local leaders, policy makers, and climate experts. More commonly demonstrated for countries, MAC curves need to be developed for cities because of their heterogeneity, which vary in their urban activities, energy supply, infrastructure stock, and commuting patterns. The methodology for constructing bottom-up MAC curves for cities is presented for technologies that offer fuel switching and/or energy efficiencies, while considering technology lifetimes, city-specific electricity and fuel prices, and emission intensities. Resulting MAC curves are unique to every city, and chart the pathway towards low-carbon growth by prioritizing measures based on cost-effectiveness. A case study of Toronto’s climate targets demonstrates the prioritization of select technologies. Leveraging MAC curves to support climate programs enables cities to strategically invest in financing climate action and designing incentives.

Significance: Our quantification of energy and material flows for the world’s 27 megacities is a major undertaking, not previously achieved. The sheer magnitude of these flows (e.g., 9% of global electricity, 10% of gasoline; 13% of solid waste) shows the importance of megacities in addressing global environmental challenges. In aggregate the resource flows through megacities are consistent with scaling laws for cities. Statistical relations are established for electricity use, heating/industrial fuels, ground transportation, water consumption, waste generation, and steel production in terms of heating-degree days, urban form, economic activity, and population growth. Analysis at the microscale shows that electricity use is strongly correlated with building floor area, explaining the macroscale correlation between per capita electricity use and urbanized area per capita.

Summary: This forum article explores thermodynamic understanding of the growth of cities, including theoretical foundations, observations, and analysis. The general theory of nonequilibrium thermodynamics is reviewed, recognizing differences in interpretation between Prigogine and Schneider and Kay as well as discussing the hypothesis of maximum entropy production. Calculations of exergy gradients in a few cities and settlements, along with measures of anthropogenic heat loss in further cities, support the notion that cities are dissipative structures. The observation that primary energy use per capita increases in Singapore and Hong Kong as they grow is further evidence to support the thermodynamic understanding of the growth of cities, indicative of an increasing rate of entropy production. At the global scale, the strong linear relationship between global urban population and total global energy use, and the distribution of city sizes according to Zipf's law, can be understood as emergent results based on thermodynamics. Parallel results might be derived from models that represent underlying microscale processes, several of which are reviewed. Issues for future research include: development of nonequilibrium thermodynamic models specific to city growth; further study of exergy flows of cities with consistent methodology, including attention to solar energy exchanges in cities; and further exploration of links between thermodynamic and economic models of urban growth.

Summary: Population and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) projections are used to estimate total global municipal solid waste (MSW) generation over the twenty‐first century. Some projections for global population suggest that it will peak this century. Waste generation rates per capita generally increase with affluence, although in the most affluent countries there is also a trend toward dematerialization. The confluence of these factors means that at some point in the future total global waste generation could possibly peak. To determine when peak waste might occur, we used the shared‐socioeconomic pathway scenarios (used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] studies) combined with estimates of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation rates, extrapolated from our work for the World Bank. Despite the expectation that total MSW generation in Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) and high‐income countries will peak mid‐century, with current trajectories global peak waste is not expected before 2100. The peak could be moved forward to around 2075 and reduced in intensity by some 30% if a more aggressive sustainability growth scenario were followed, rather than the current business‐as‐usual scenario. Further, the magnitude of peak waste is sensitive to the intensity of waste generation; it could vary from 7.3 to 10.9 megatonnes per day under the sustainability scenario. The timing of peak waste will substantially depend on the development of cities in Sub‐Saharan Africa, where population growth rates are more than double the rest of the world.