Harald Oberhofer

This paper discusses two alternative two-part models for fractional response variables that are defined as ratios of integers. The first two-part model assumes a Binomial distribution and known group size. It nests the one-part fractional response model proposed by Papke and Wooldridge (1996) and, thus, allows one to apply Wald, LM and/or LR tests in order to discriminate between the two models. The second model extends the first one by allowing for overdispersion in the data. We demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed two-part models for data on the 401(k) pension plan participation rates used in Papke and Wooldridge (1996).

This paper presents a theoretical model and empirical evidence to explain the occurrence of tax amnesties. We treat amnesties as endogenous, resulting from a strategic game between many taxpayers discounting future payments from punishment and a government that trades off costs and benefits of amnesty programs. From the model we derive hypotheses about the factors that should influence the occurrence of tax amnesties. For our empirical test we rely on amnesty information from US States between 1981 and 2011. In line with the theoretical model, our empirical findings suggest that the likelihood of amnesties is mainly driven by a government's fiscal requirements and the taxpayers' expectations on future amnesties.

Based on a three-equation model for initial firm size, survival, and firm growth we estimate firm-specific transition probabilities between size classes of the firm size distribution. This allows to analyze counterfactual scenarios that assess the impact of changes in exogenous variables on the intra-distribution dynamics of the firm size distribution. We find that a counterfactual decrease in average firm age increases the exit hazard of young firms, and at the same time reduces the probability of observing high-growth firms. An increase in the industry-wide entry rate and an increase in market growth, by contrast, have virtually no impact on the intra-distribution dynamics of the firm size distribution. Finally, a larger birth size increases the probability for the youngest and smallest firms to become high-growth firms.

This article investigates firm survival in professional football, arguing that the relegation and promotion system in football leagues is very similar to firm exits and entries in traditional goods and service markets. Empirically, we use a data set containing information on how long football teams have participated in the German Premier League over the playing seasons 1981-1982 to 2009-2010. Controlling for club- and market-specific characteristics, such as a team’s budget or its squad composition, our findings suggest that younger firms are systematically exposed to higher risks of market exit in professional football, which is often referred to as liability of newness in organizational ecology.