Lucio Guido Tapia Carpio

To preserve the environment, several countries have promoted the insertion and expansion of biodiesel into their energy matrices through mandates (mandatory blending of biodiesel and fossil diesel). This study analyzed the short- and long-term effects of changes in biodiesel mandates on certain representative variables in the biodiesel industry, including biodiesel demand, fossil diesel imports, and the retail price of diesel B. Three potential scenarios (growth, stability, and decline) were established to forecast future fluctuations in biodiesel mandates from September 2021 to December 2023. The short-term and long-term equilibrium relationships were determined using the vector error correction model with an exogenous variable (VECX), considering the biodiesel mandate as an exogenous variable. The results of this study are as follows. (i) The time series analyzed were non-stationary and cointegrated. (ii) In the long term, the 1% increase in biodiesel mandate caused increases of 1.1946% in the demand for biodiesel, 1.1967% in the price of diesel B, and only 0.7712% in fossil diesel imports. (iii) In the short term, the 1% increase in biodiesel mandate caused increases of 0.9249% in biodiesel demand, 0.7659% in the price of diesel B, and only 0.0361% in fossil diesel imports.

Several countries face the challenge of reducing the intermittency of solar photovoltaic generation due to changes in climatic conditions. Considering that Brazil has continental-scale dimensions and diverse geography, an alternative that allows the smoothing of the intermittency of solar photovoltaic generation is needed. The novelty of this study is the proposal to efficiently allocate the production of photovoltaic solar energy between the interconnected regions of the country, forming an optimal portfolio with the highest productivity and the least intermittency. Thus, the regional allocation process for solar generation is formulated through an optimization problem with two objective functions: to increase the country’s productivity and simultaneously control the variability of the supply of solar energy. This study concludes that the current models of planning for the expansion of Brazil do not consider the variability of solar irradiation incident in the five regions of Brazil.

Several economies around the world are using second-generation (2G) ethanol produced from agricultural residues, like sugarcane straw and bagasse, as a sustainable solution to replace petroleum products. Since first-generation (1G) ethanol uses the sugars of sugarcane, an integrated 1G–2G production would enable the production of more ethanol from the same amount of sugarcane without leading to increased use of arable land. The ethanol production process is complex, involving different high-energy consumption operations such as evaporation and distillation. The economic competitiveness of this process depends heavily on the amount of thermal and electrical energy produced using sugarcane straw and bagasse as input. Thus, the objective of this study was to use the mean-variance methodology to determine the optimal allocation of residual sugarcane biomass between 2G ethanol and bioelectricity productions, with simultaneous objectives of maximizing the return and minimizing the risk for investors of this sector. In this paper, four scenarios are analyzed. The first one is the base scenario that represents the current state of production costs and investments. scenarios 2, 3, and 4 considered four cuts of 10%, 20%, and 40% in the production cost of ethanol 2G, respectively. The results show the optimum biomass allocations and the growth rates of returns as a function of risk growth. It can be concluded that from scenario 4, the production of 2G ethanol becomes financially advantageous for the investor, presenting greater returns with smaller risks.

Since the 1997 end of the monopoly on the exploration and production of oil and gas in Brazil, there has been an explosion of activity in this industry. This includes four instances of approved unitization involving Petrobras (owned by the Brazilian government) and another 12 unitization cases being evaluated by ANP, the Brazilian oil industry regulator. In most of these cases, a polarization between private oil/gas companies operating in Brazil and Petrobras was apparent. In addition, unitization is further complicated in this country because three distinct operating regimes are allowed: concession contracts, production sharing agreements, and onerous assignment. This paper evaluates these strategies according to game theory, makes policy recommendations, and also seeks to support the drafting of regulations, suggesting it would be better to aim at exploration/production to promote rapid convergence in unitization.

This article proposes a model that allows thermoelectric power plants to identify the risks and opportunities that exist during the marketing of electricity in “hybrid” markets, where electricity is offered in two types of environments: regulated and free. Because electricity generated in Brazil is predominantly hydraulic, it has adopted a scheme of centralized dispatch through a chain of optimization models, the natural gas thermal power plants enter in a complementary manner, which mitigates operational risk in dry periods. In this article, the value of operational flexibility will be estimated, and a model will be proposed to help thermoelectric power plants with energy-marketing decisions in both regulated and free markets. The results indicate that paying a premium for the availability of generation capacity can significantly stimulate the development of new projects in thermoelectric generation.