Olivier Cadot

Does international trade help or hinder the economic development of border regions relative to interior regions? Theory tends to suggest that trade helps, but it can also predict the reverse. The question is policy relevant as regions near land borders are generally poorer, and sometimes more prone to civil conflict, than interior regions. We therefore estimate how changes in bilateral trade volumes affect economic activity along roads running inland from international borders, using satellite night-light measurements for 2,186 border-crossing roads in 138 countries. We observe a significant 'border shadow': on average, lights are 37 percent dimmer at the border than 200 kilometers inland. We find this difference to be reduced by trade expansion as measured by exports and instrumented with tariffs on the opposite side of the border. At the mean, a doubling of exports to a particular neighbor country reduces the gradient of light from the border by some 23 percent. This qualitative finding applies to developed and developing countries, and to rural and urban border regions. Proximity to cities on either side of the border amplifies the effects of trade. We provide evidence that local export-oriented production is a significant mechanism behind the observed effects.

This paper identifies the effect of trade policy on market power through new data and a new identification strategy. We use a large dataset containing export values and quantities by product and destination for all exporting firms in 12 developing and emerging countries over several years, merged with destination-product specific information on tariffs and non-tariff barriers. We identify market power by observing how exporting firms price discriminate across markets in reaction to variations in bilateral exchange rates. Pricing-to-market is prevalent in all regions of our sample, even among small firms, although it is increasing in firm size, in accordance with theory. More importantly, we find that the effect of non-tariff measures is not isomorphic to that of tariffs: the pricing-to-market behavior we observe suggests that, while tariffs reduce the market power of foreign firms through classic rent-shifting effects, non-tariff measures alter market structure and reinforce the market power of non-exiting firms, domestic and foreign ones alike.

This paper uses a product-level gravity approach to estimate the effect of ASEAN's product-specific rules of origin (ROOs) on regional trade, using original data on rules applicable at the six-digit level of the harmonized system. We find that the average tariff ad valorem equivalent (AVE) of ASEAN's ROOs is 3.40 percent across all instruments and sectors. The trade-weighted average is 2.09 percent. This moderate estimate is in line with the existing literature. We also find fairly high AVEs for some sectors, however, including leather, textile and apparel, footwear, and automobiles. Additionally, we find that some rules appear more restrictive than others; in this regard, the textile rule seems to stand out as a relatively more trade-inhibiting rule than others.

In spite of widespread tariff reductions, intra-African borders remain ‘thick’. Regional trade is inhibited by inadequate transportation infrastructure but also by various non-tariff measures (NTMs). This paper combines price data from the World Bank's International Comparison Project with a new database on NTMs to estimate their effect on consumer prices for selected consumption products. Results based on panel regressions on 1,260 country-product pairs suggest that, after controlling for tariffs, systematic cross-country cost-of-living differences, and product-specific unobservables, sanitary and phytosanitary measures contribute to raise the price of African foodstuffs by 14%. At the product level, rice and other cereals, some types of meat (e.g. poultry) and edible oils tend to fetch high ad-valorem equivalents. Combining our estimates with data on household expenditure patterns from Kenya's household survey, we show that the effect is regressive, raising the cost of living by 9% for poor households.

This paper investigates whether the Pesticides Initiative Program has significantly affected the export performance of Senegal's horticulture industry. We apply two main microeconometric techniques, difference-in-differences and matching difference-in-differences, to identify the effect of the Pesticides Initiative Program on exports of fresh fruits and vegetables. We use a unique firm-level dataset containing data on sales, employment, and exports by product and destination markets, as well as firm enrolment year, over 2000–2008. The results suggest that while the program had no significant effect on exports pooled over all products and destinations, it had a positive effect when considering fresh fruits and vegetables exports to the European Union.

Building on earlier work by Estevadeordal, we construct a synthetic index (R-index)intending to capture the restrictiveness on market access due to product specific rules of origin (PSRO)that apply at the tariff-line level. The R-index is constructed for rules of origins under NAFTA and under the single list applying to PANEURO, the new regime applying to all EU preferential trade agreements. The R-index highlights how identical PSRO have different impacts across countries, and how the complexity of PSRO varies across sectors. Having controlled for the extent of tariff preference at the tariff-line level, the R-index contributes to account for differences in utilization rates at the tariff line level. The index is then used to assess composition effects across countries subjected to some set of PSRO and to compute estimates of the compliance costs associated with rules of origin under both regimes

This paper estimates the effective market-access granted under NAFTA in textiles and apparel by combining two approaches. First, we estimate the effect of tariff preferences and rules of origin on the border prices of Mexican final goods exported to the US and of US intermediates exported to Mexico.