Jimmy Ran

We apply recursive VAR/VECM as well as panel data models to examine whether oil price shocks have any significant impacts upon the Asian small open economies. We found no significant impacts on Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), regardless of model specifications. However, we detected positive significant effects on unemployment after three time lags and significant contemporaneous effects on CPI in panel regressions contrary to previous studies.

This study attempts to examine the impacts of Real Exchange Rate (RER) misalignment on China's export performance. Using the SUR methodology coupled with disaggregate panel export data, it shows that China's export sector may not necessarily lose from the Central Government's decision to revalue its RMB against the US dollar because the negative impact of the RER appreciation on Chinese exports may be diluted by the positive impacts attributing to a reduction in the RER misalignment.