Colette L. Heald

The global organic aerosol (OA) budget is highly uncertain and past studies suggest that models substantially underestimate observed concentrations. Few of these studies have examined the vertical distribution of OA. Furthermore, many model-measurement comparisons have been performed with different models for single field campaigns. We synthesize organic aerosol measurements from 17 aircraft campaigns from 2001–2009 and use these observations to consistently evaluate a GEOS-Chem model simulation. Remote, polluted and fire-influenced conditions are all represented in this extensive dataset. Mean observed OA concentrations range from 0.2–8.2 μg sm⁻³ and make up 15 to 70% of non-refractory aerosol. The standard GEOS-Chem simulation reproduces the observed vertical profile, although observations are underestimated in 13 of the 17 field campaigns (the median observed to simulated ratio ranges from 0.4 to 4.2), with the largest model bias in anthropogenic regions. However, the model is best able to capture the observed variability in these anthropogenically-influenced regions (R²=0.18−0.57), but has little skill in remote or fire-influenced regions. The model bias increases as a function of relative humidity for 11 of the campaigns, possibly indicative of missing aqueous phase SOA production. However, model simulations of aqueous phase SOA suggest a pronounced signature in the mid-troposphere (2–6 km) which is not supported in the observations examined here. Spracklen et al. (2011) suggest adding ~100 Tg yr⁻¹ source of anthropogenically-controlled SOA to close the measurement-model gap, which we add as anthropogenic SOA. This eliminates the model underestimate near source, but leads to overestimates aloft in a few regions and in remote regions, suggesting either additional sinks of OA or higher volatility aerosol at colder temperatures. Sensitivity simulations indicate that fragmentation of organics upon either heterogeneous or gas-phase oxidation could be an important (missing) sink of OA in models, reducing the global SOA burden by 15% and 47% respectively. The best agreement with observations is obtained when the simulated anthropogenically-controlled SOA is increased to ~100 Tg yr⁻¹ accompanied by either a gas-phase fragmentation process or a reduction in the temperature dependence of the organic aerosol partitioning (by decreasing the enthalpy of vaporization from 42 kJ mol⁻¹ to 25 kJ mol⁻¹). These results illustrate that models may require both additional sources and additional sinks to capture the observed concentrations of organic aerosol.

The global organic aerosol (OA) budget is highly uncertain and past studies suggest that models substantially underestimate observed concentrations. Few of these studies have examined the vertical distribution of OA. Furthermore, many model-measurement comparisons have been performed with different models for single field campaigns. We synthesize organic aerosol measurements from 17 aircraft campaigns from 2001–2009 and use these observations to consistently evaluate a GEOS-Chem model simulation. Remote, polluted and fire-influenced conditions are all represented in this extensive dataset. Mean observed OA concentrations range from 0.2–8.2 μg sm⁻³ and make up 15 to 70% of non-refractory aerosol. The standard GEOS-Chem simulation reproduces the observed vertical profile, although observations are underestimated in 13 of the 17 field campaigns (the median observed to simulated ratio ranges from 0.4 to 4.2), with the largest model bias in anthropogenic regions. However, the model is best able to capture the observed variability in these anthropogenically-influenced regions (R²=0.18−0.57), but has little skill in remote or fire-influenced regions. The model bias increases as a function of relative humidity for 11 of the campaigns, possibly indicative of missing aqueous phase SOA production. However, model simulations of aqueous phase SOA suggest a pronounced signature in the mid-troposphere (2–6 km) which is not supported in the observations examined here. Spracklen et al. (2011) suggest adding ~100 Tg yr⁻¹ source of anthropogenically-controlled SOA to close the measurement-model gap, which we add as anthropogenic SOA. This eliminates the model underestimate near source, but leads to overestimates aloft in a few regions and in remote regions, suggesting either additional sinks of OA or higher volatility aerosol at colder temperatures. Sensitivity simulations indicate that fragmentation of organics upon either heterogeneous or gas-phase oxidation could be an important (missing) sink of OA in models, reducing the global SOA burden by 15% and 47% respectively. The best agreement with observations is obtained when the simulated anthropogenically-controlled SOA is increased to ~100 Tg yr⁻¹ accompanied by either a gas-phase fragmentation process or a reduction in the temperature dependence of the organic aerosol partitioning (by decreasing the enthalpy of vaporization from 42 kJ mol⁻¹ to 25 kJ mol⁻¹). These results illustrate that models may require both additional sources and additional sinks to capture the observed concentrations of organic aerosol.

Limited understanding of the production and loss of organic aerosol (OA) to the atmosphere has resulted in poorly constrained source estimates ranging from 140 to 910 TgCyr⁻¹ [Goldstein and Galbally, 2007]. We use satellite observations to quantitatively estimate the atmospheric burden of organic aerosol and the associated production. We find that attributing the mid‐visible continental aerosol optical depth (AOD) observed by the MISR satellite entirely to OA implies a global source of 430 TgCyr⁻¹ of sub‐micron OA. We use a model (GEOS‐Chem) to remove the contribution of inorganic aerosol, dust and soot from the observed AOD and derive a continental OA production of 150 TgCyr⁻¹ (equivalent burden of 2.5 TgC), with 80% uncertainty. This result significantly reduces the uncertainty in the global OA budget and provides an upper limit for the “missing source” of OA.

Organic aerosol (OA) in the atmosphere consists of a multitude of organic species which are either directly emitted or the products of a variety of chemical reactions. This complexity challenges our ability to explicitly characterize the chemical composition of these particles. We find that the bulk composition of OA from a variety of environments (laboratory and field) occupies a narrow range in the space of a Van Krevelen diagram (H:C versus O:C), characterized by a slope of ∼−1. The data show that atmospheric aging, involving processes such as volatilization, oxidation, mixing of air masses or condensation of further products, is consistent with movement along this line, producing a more oxidized aerosol. This finding has implications for our understanding of the evolution of atmospheric OA and representation of these processes in models.

The contribution of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAP) to the global budget of organic aerosol is poorly understood. Concentrations of mannitol, a biotracer for fungal spores, are used here to constrain the first global model (GEOS‐Chem) simulation of PBAP from fungi. Emissions are driven by leaf area index and atmospheric water vapor concentrations and are empirically optimized based on the geographical and seasonal variability of observed mannitol concentrations. Optimized global emissions total 28 Tg yr⁻¹, with 25% of that total emitted as fine mode (PM_2.5) aerosol. Fungal spores contribute 23% of total primary emissions of organic aerosol, or 7% of the fine‐mode source. Annual mean simulated surface concentrations of PBAP over vegetated regions range from 0.1–0.7 μgm⁻³ (PM_2.5) and 0.4–3.0 μgm⁻³ (PM₁₀), with the highest concentrations in the tropics, where PBAP may be the dominant source of organic aerosol. Further validation is required to reduce the substantial uncertainties on this budget.

We explore the potential role of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) on isoprene emissions using a global coupled land–atmosphere model [Community Atmospheric Model–Community Land Model (CAM–CLM)] for recent (year 2000, 365 ppm CO₂) and future (year 2100, 717 ppm CO₂) conditions. We incorporate an empirical model of observed isoprene emissions response to both ambient CO₂ concentrations in the long‐term growth environment and short‐term changes in intercellular CO₂ concentrations into the MEGAN biogenic emission model embedded within the CLM. Accounting for CO₂ inhibition has little impact on predictions of present‐day global isoprene emission (increase from 508 to 523 Tg C yr⁻¹). However, the large increases in future isoprene emissions typically predicted in models, which are due to a projected warmer climate, are entirely offset by including the CO₂ effects. Projected global isoprene emissions in 2100 drop from 696 to 479 Tg C yr⁻¹ when this effect is included, maintaining future isoprene sources at levels similar to present day. The isoprene emission response to CO₂ is dominated by the long‐term growth environment effect, with modulations of 10% or less due to the variability in intercellular CO₂ concentration. As a result, perturbations to isoprene emissions associated with changes in ambient CO₂ are largely aseasonal, with little diurnal variability. Future isoprene emissions increase by more than a factor of two in 2100 (to 1242 Tg C yr⁻¹) when projected changes in vegetation distribution and leaf area density are included. Changing land cover and the role of nutrient limitation on CO₂ fertilization therefore remain the largest source of uncertainty in isoprene emission prediction. Although future projections suggest a compensatory balance between the effects of temperature and CO₂ on isoprene emission, the enhancement of isoprene emission due to lower ambient CO₂ concentrations did not compensate for the effect of cooler temperatures over the last 400 thousand years of the geologic record (including the Last Glacial Maximum).

The sensitivity of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentration to changes in climate and emissions is investigated using a coupled global atmosphere‐land model driven by the year 2100 IPCC A1B scenario predictions. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3) is updated with recent laboratory determined yields for SOA formation from monoterpene oxidation, isoprene photooxidation and aromatic photooxidation. Biogenic emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes are simulated interactively using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols (MEGAN2) within the Community Land Model (CLM3). The global mean SOA burden is predicted to increase by 36% in 2100, primarily the result of rising biogenic and anthropogenic emissions which independently increase the burden by 26% and 7%. The later includes enhanced biogenic SOA formation due to increased emissions of primary organic aerosol (5–25% increases in surface SOA concentrations in 2100). Climate change alone (via temperature, removal rates, and oxidative capacity) does not change the global mean SOA production, but the global burden increases by 6%. The global burden of anthropogenic SOA experiences proportionally more growth than biogenic SOA in 2100 from the net effect of climate and emissions (67% increase predicted). Projected anthropogenic land use change for 2100 (A2) is predicted to reduce the global SOA burden by 14%, largely the result of cropland expansion. South America is the largest global source region for SOA in the present day and 2100, but Asia experiences the largest relative growth in SOA production by 2100 because of the large predicted increases in Asian anthropogenic aromatic emissions. The projected decrease in global sulfur emissions implies that SOA will contribute a progressively larger fraction of the global aerosol burden.