James J. Kemple

Students' engagement and performance in their first year of high school offer strong signals about their prospects for earning a diploma 4 years later. These performance measures can be used to construct on-track indicators to measure a school's performance and to identify needs of specific students who are at risk of dropping out. This article undertakes a systematic reanalysis of several on-track indicators that predicted the likelihood of graduating with a New York State Regents diploma in New York City. The analytic dataset contains comprehensive longitudinal information for first-time 9th graders who are enrolled in high school between 2001–2002 and 2010–2011. The results show that the current New York City Department of Education indicator (earning 10 or more course credits in the 9th grade) offers a reliable prediction of graduation with a Regents diploma. However, an indicator based on earning 10 or more credits and passing at least one Regents exam represents a substantial improvement on the current indicator and was used as the primary indicator for additional analyses. These analyses showed that this on-track indicator has been reliable and stable across seven cohorts of entering 9th graders. The analysis also shows that the substantial increase in 9th-grade on-track rates offers a reliable foreshadowing of increases in Regents diploma graduation rates in New York City. Additionally, the on-track indicator was highly predictive for a wide range of student subgroups and helps to highlight the prominent gaps in performance along racial, gender, and economic lines. Finally, the article highlights significant variation in on-track rates across schools, that should be investigated in future research.